Agartala: Boxanagar and Dhanpur, two key assembly constituencies of the Sepahijala district of Tripura are up for by-elections on September 5, and even as opposition parties are trying hard to present a united front, most people believe the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is likely to win both seats without much issue.
BJP, which crossed the majority mark on its own during the assembly elections earlier this year, also snatched victory from the Left in Dhanpur but failed to expand its footprints in the Muslim-majority Boxanagar. Six months on, the BJP and the Left look set for the second round of an intriguing political battle.
Other major political parties, including principal opposition TIPRA Motha and Congress, opted out of the elections paving the way for a straight between the ideological rivals.
But the opposition unity seems to hardly deter the ruling party, with party insiders claiming they would win both seats with record margins.
Their confidence has historical backing: by-poll results in Tripura almost always favour the ruling party barring a few exceptions.
BJP’s heavyweight candidate from Dhanpur, Pratima Bhoumik, scripted history by defeating CPIM’s Kaushik Chanda from Dhanpur. She became the first non-Left MLA from the constituency in the last 60 years. However, due to constitutional obligations and the party’s high command’s instructions, she stepped down from her post.
Dhanpur has always been considered a Left bastion that elected CPIM stalwarts like Samar Chowdhury and ex-CM Manik Sarkar in successive elections. Even Bhoumik contested her first elections unsuccessfully against Sarkar in 2018, but in 2023, the wind of change altered the results.
However, the opposition parties argue that the division of votes between the Left and the CPIM led to Bhowmik’s victory. This time, however, the calculation is different.
According to poll data, Left candidate Kaushik Chanda received a little over 15,000 votes, while Pratima Bhoumik bagged more than 19,000 votes. The TIPRA Motha candidate Amiya Dayal Noatia, who will not contest this time, received around 8,500 votes.
CPIM state secretary Jitendra Choudhury said sans a candidate from TIPRA Motha, the CPIM candidate could have easily sailed through.
For the by-election, BJP has nominated Bindu Debnath from the constituency, who had previously been the Mandal President there. He is said to be a close associate of Pratima Bhoumik.
At Boxanagar, the results were starkly opposite. Tofajjal Hossain of the BJP received around 14,500 votes, while Samsul Haque received over 19,000 votes in his favour. TIPRA Motha candidate, Abu Khayer Miah, now suspended for his open support to the BJP candidate, got around 3,000 votes.
But merely counting votes to gauge the results would not help in Boxanagar. The image of Left’s most trusted face for Boxanagar, Samsul Haque, was the main reason behind his victory. After his sudden demise, his son Mizan Hossain will contest on behalf of the CPI(M).
Also, while the opposition has tried to present a united front, the gaps have been visible. After the CPIM announced the names of their candidates for the polls, TIPRA Motha and Congress publicly criticised the CPI(M).
Congress MLA Sudip Roy Barman said the Left parties didn’t approach the Congress party leaders to participate in the campaign.
Barman’s assertion assumes significance as it exposed the chinks in the opposition’s armour. “They may look united, but at ground level, getting Congress votes transferred in favour of the Left candidates would be a herculean task in the days to come,” a senior Congress leader against the Left-Cong adjustment told EastMojo.
According to him, not only the Congress party, TIPRA Motha would also find it hard to extend support to the CPIM. “Just because two or three parties come under a common platform does not guarantee that all the voters will also transfer their mandate lock stock and barrel,” a senior political leader of TIPRA Motha, who feels this political understanding will fail to yield any results, said.
Political analyst and veteran journalist Sekhar Datta said, “The leading faces of Congress and TIPRA Motha hogged the limelight for their strong and prolonged fight against the Left parties. Being a part of the opposition bloc and keeping the Left in the nucleus is a tough choice. Even if the leaders share a single stage, political differences can never be bridged between foot soldiers.”
But political rivalry is not the only determinant here.
Development projects for the area also play a crucial role in by-elections. The BJP has 31 MLAs, while their ally IPFT has one. The results of these by-elections may not impact the government, given they have 32 of the 60 seats. Even if the results of both the seats go against the ruling party, it would only improve the CPIM’s tally from 10 to 12.
Voters, however, are thinking beyond party calculations. At least in bypolls, locals prefer ruling party MLAs in their area for several reasons. TIPRA Motha leader Abu Khayer Mia, suspended for supporting a BJP candidate, raised a significant point. “The BJP governing the state. So it is better to vote for the BJP candidate to ensure our area isn’t deprived of development. A ruling party MLA can do much more work than an opposition party MLA. For better schools, colleges, roads and development, we all should vote for BJP in the by-elections,” Mia said.
Mia is not a lone proponent of the idea. Several people who voted for the Left in the last assembly want BJP to win the elections in both seats.
Dear Reader,
Every day, our team at EastMojo travels through rain, rough roads, and remote hills to bring you stories that matter – stories from your town, your people, your Northeast.
We do this because we believe in truthful, independent journalism. No big corporate backing, no government pressure – just honest reporting by local journalists who live and breathe the same air you do.
But to keep doing this work, we need you. Your small contribution helps us pay our reporters fairly, reach places others ignore, and keep asking the tough questions.
If you believe the Northeast deserves its own fearless voice, stand with us.
Support independent journalism. Be a Member.
Thank you,
Karma Paljor
Editor-in-Chief, eastmojo.com
Kawchar Ahmed, a teacher of a local private school in Boxanagar, said the biggest advantage that Tofajjal Hossain could get in the election is because of his constituency. “He failed in the first attempt but did not leave the constituency. People in distress always found him as a guardian,” said Ahmed. He also said Mizan Hossain from CPIM is a strong candidate, but in by-elections, people generally vote in favour of the ruling party.
Anuwar Hossain, a brick kiln manager of the Veluarchar area of Boxanagar, felt people have voted for the CPIM repeatedly, but this time, a wind of change is visible among the voters. Meanwhile, for the BJP, a win in Boxanagar can act as the party’s expansion in the Muslims dominated areas. The long wait for strong Muslim leaders may end with Tofajjal Hossain if he gets elected to the state assembly.
Also Read | Tripura: TIPRA leader suspended for canvassing in favour of BJP candidate