Shillong/New Delhi: East and Northeast India has ended the 2026 southwest monsoon with the lowest seasonal rainfall in 125 years of records, a Climate Trends analysis of India Meteorological Department (IMD) data shows.
The region received 1,017.1 mm of rain between 1 June and 30 September, against a normal of 1,367.3 mm, a deficiency of 25.6%. The previous low was 1,065.7 mm, set in 2013.
The shortfall is the sharpest sign of a season that closed 13% below normal for India as a whole, the weakest in a decade. It came as a developing El Niño in the Pacific, which has an 83% chance of becoming the strongest since 1950 for October to December, suppressed rainfall across much of the country.
Meghalaya at the bottom
Among the states and union territories of East and Northeast India, Meghalaya fared worst, with rainfall 60% below normal. Manipur followed at 46% below, Arunachal Pradesh at 44% below, Bihar at 32% below and Assam at 28% below. Mizoram (-19%) and Tripura (-16%) also fell short, and Jharkhand ended 4% down. Only Sikkim (+9%), Nagaland (+6%) and West Bengal (+1%) finished above normal.
The district-level data shows how widespread the failure was. Meghalaya recorded deficient rainfall in 10 of its 11 districts. Assam was deficient in 22 of 35 districts, and Arunachal Pradesh reported deficit or large-deficit rainfall in 12 of 16. In Bihar, 33 of 38 districts fell short.
The region’s weight in India’s monsoon makes the shortfall more consequential. After the West Coast, Northeast India is the second-highest contributor to monsoon rainfall. The report notes that the western coast and parts of the Northeast, among the country’s wettest areas, typically receive over 400 centimetres of rain a year.
A decade of decline
This year’s record is the latest in a long slide. In nine of the last 10 years, the region has recorded negative rainfall. The only exception was 2020, when it finished 7% above normal. The deficit was 25% in 2018 and 20% in 2025, and has worsened each year since 2024, when it was 14%. The 2026 figure of 25.6% is the worst in the series.
Rainfall in the region is also falling unevenly. Across India, the report says, rain is increasingly arriving in heavy spells even when seasonal totals are low. Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather said low-pressure systems are now spending more time over land while retaining their strength, “partly due to a sustained supply of moisture,” contributing to more extreme rainfall events and cloudburst-like conditions.
A tale of two monsoons
The Northeast’s failure contrasts with the performance of other regions. Central India recorded 952.8 mm against a normal 978 mm, and Northwest India 553 mm against 587.6 mm, both close to normal.
Dr KJ Ramesh, former IMD Director General, attributed this to 14 low-pressure systems that produced 77 low-pressure area days. None formed in the Bay of Bengal, he said. They were remnants of West Pacific systems, and their impact stayed confined to Central and Northwest India.
The South Peninsula, the other major monsoon-contributing region, also struggled. It recorded 542 mm against a normal 716 mm, the fourth-lowest since 1901, with a regional deficit of 24%. The report describes both regions as having “failed miserably.”
Drought declarations and a pressured farm sector
Five states, Telangana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra, have already announced droughts, with Maharashtra declaring one across 75% of the state. The deficit has fed into the kharif sowing data. Rice acreage was down 15.56 lakh hectares by 5 October, the sharpest fall among major crops.
Sugarcane and cotton also lost area, while pulses and oilseeds gained. Dr G. V. Ramanjaneyulu of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture said farmers appear to be shifting to less water-intensive crops, and warned that lower rainfall limits groundwater recharge and raises irrigation dependence.
Among the Northeast states, the sowing data shows Assam adding 0.59 lakh hectares of rice, though the report does not break down acreage changes for the rest of the region. Bihar, in East India, also added 0.26 lakh hectares of rice, while losing 0.30 lakh hectares of sugarcane.
Reservoirs offer a mixed picture. Live storage in 178 major reservoirs on 8 October stood at 78.71% of last year’s level and 87.08% of normal. The Eastern region is in the strongest position relative to its seasonal normal, at 85.39%, but that is still below normal. The Southern region is at 47.22% and the Northern at 58.63%, both substantially below their norms.
Warmer winter ahead
The stress is expected to carry into the coming months. El Niño has a nearly 100% chance of persisting through February 2027, and IMD’s forecast shows most of the country receiving below-normal rainfall in the October to December season. August 2026 was India’s hottest on record since 1901, and September was the fifth hottest.
Dr Ramesh said summer could arrive as early as February, and that low reservoirs, depleted groundwater and reduced soil moisture would directly affect rabi and summer crops. Dr Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology said climate change does not cause El Niño but raises the background temperature, intensifying its impacts, while local land-use changes such as deforestation can multiply them further.
Aarti Khosla, Director of Climate Trends, called for a shift “from response to preparedness,” urging stronger early warnings, heat action plans and public health readiness before the next temperature record is set.
The report also notes that the link between El Niño and monsoon failure is not absolute. About 60% of El Niño years have brought deficient or below-normal rains, and some, such as 1997, saw normal rainfall. For the Northeast, 2026 now sits among the clear misses.
Also Read: Prem XL (2026) is a romantic comedy that has its moments but little else
You just read a story that took days to report. Help us keep our reporters on the ground in the Northeast.
Ad-free reading, support and keep important stories alive
Support once (any amount)
Scan to pay via UPI