Why and how did the INC win in Manipur, and that too by huge margins? The immediate answer would be the impact of the violent conflict that erupted last year in the state, which is still simmering today.
There have been more than enough expressions of anger over the BJP government (both in the state and the centre), whom voters in both of the two Lok Sabha seats have blamed for the crisis. Most importantly, the state BJP chief minister, as the leader of the government, whom voters feel is not doing enough on either side of the divide.
The violence formed the backdrop and ‘agenda’ behind the general election of 2024 in Manipur. Campaigning and voting were held amid an ongoing conflict between the Meiteis, voters of the Inner Manipur parliamentary constituency, and the Kuki-Zo, who are voters of the outer parliamentary seat.
While Kuki-Zo voters have strongly expressed their grievances over the Biren Singh government, a large section of the Meitei voters, too, were unhappy with how Singh handled the situation.
Voters have shown and voiced in many ways and terms how Manipur was “forgotten” by the union government and left to fend for themselves in this crisis.
Most importantly, the silence in the ongoing violence from the central government did shape the voters’ turn to the Congress in the parliamentary election. This can not be ruled out. It may be mentioned that while the incumbent Prime Minister has not set foot into Manipur and the Union Home Minister’s visit with few promises and no visible signs of improvement in the situation, only adds to the growing despair.
Meanwhile, significantly, Rahul Gandhi of the Congress visited the state drawing a huge response. He kicked off the Bharat Jodo Yatra from Manipur, giving a strong signal and message. His visit and personal interactions touched the hearts and minds of the general public in Manipur.
The violent conflict that has gone on for over a year now is one of the reasons why and how, this time, the parliamentary election was taken “seriously” in Manipur. Otherwise, people at large are “indifferent” to Lok Sabha elections. Even though Manipur and the northeastern states at large usually do not see much election excitement for Lok Sabha elections in the past, this time it witnessed major ripples.
In the silence of the general public, especially the Kuki-Zos abstentions from voting, or in terms of various forms and levels—election discussions, debates, social media.
The tension that built up in the pre-poll, during the poll, and post-poll, the uneasy calm, the boycott call, and the campaign did indicate that this election, unlike any other in the Lok Sabha elections in Manipur, witnessed enthusiasm and saw one of the tightest fights with high-profile candidates.
This election is indeed one of the most interesting ever for Manipur, which normally follows the trend of the ruling party winning the Lok Sabha polls with voters not giving much attention. This time, either people ardently campaign or abstain, sending out strong messages and assertions.
While a lot of election-related activity is being seen in the Imphal valley in the inner parliament constituency, no Kuki-Zo contested the election, and over half of them abstained from voting. A displaced population who fled outside the state—a good number of them—could not cast their votes. Many Kuki-Zo voters call for boycotts, and districts like Kangpokpi—predominantly Kuki areas—witness empty polling booths.
In the past general election, Manipur voters, especially in rural areas, were not as serious as in the state election. In many assembly constituencies, voters did not even know the candidates. Manipur MPs were never “popular” at large among their voters in Manipur. Many do not even know who their MP(s) are.
The most common refrain is, “What could two MPs in parliament do to the sea of 543?” This refrain is also true in the sense that MPs from Manipur, or for that matter, the northeast regions, do not have much impact or say in the Indian Parliament.
It was different this time. Either the abstention or the interest shown by the voters resulted in the incumbent party losing ground. For the first time, Manipur also takes parliamentary representation” with seriousness. Though only two in number, an MP in the parliament is considered as important as a representation in the state assembly.
Manipur has only two seats in the lower house of the Indian Parliament.
The two warring communities were, fortunately, or unfortunately, divided categorically between these two seats. Nevertheless, the poll result indicated that both the warring groups did desire a “change” in their representation. They no longer have faith in the BJP and are opting for the Congress.
The Meitei and Kuki-Zo constituencies and the polling showed a stark difference. The Inner Manipur constituency saw more noise and campaigning for the candidates. While the outer Manipur constituency and areas of the Kuki-Zo were quiet. Even the Naga areas did not witness much of the election extravaganzas.
However it did witness sporadic violence in both, and a re-poll was held in some polling stations in the two constituencies.
A huge celebration erupted in Imphal; the inner parliamentary constituency saw more celebrations, with people thronging the winner’s residence and party headquarters. While the outer constituency and the tribal hill areas did not see any such major events. The Kuki-Zo constituencies are silent.
There is relative calm as of now in Manipur. People in general were anxious, and there were mixed emotions. Many are hoping that the post-poll will bring some respite. Though many are sceptical as to whether elections can change the prevailing situation.
Nevertheless, the election process that has been going on for over a month now has brought the situation in Manipur to a kind of stillness. There have been no reports of violence or attacks on villages. There is an “uneasy calm” and disquiet. There is a common response that “anything can happen anytime.”
Buffer zones remain. Volunteers on both sides continue to man the “border” or “line of control.” There is no inter-district communication or connectivity between Meitei and Kuki-Zos. The only airport in Imphal, the state capital, is still inaccessible to the Kuki-Zo people. Moreover, the Kuki-Zo are struggling with hardships with daily essential commodities and medical health supplies.
The election process and its results bring an expectation. The hope is that post-election, maybe the stillness will continue and possibly lead to further calm and a slow return to normalcy. Now that the voters and citizens of Manipur have voted for a “change” a huge responsibility is placed on the two new winners.
The question is, will the two new MPs be able to deliver? Or will they, as usual, be lost in the sea of the hundreds of MPs in Delhi and not be able to raise their hands? It remains to be seen.
Also Read: Meghalaya: Saleng shatters PA Sangma family’s stronghold in Tura with historic win