Nagaon Parliamentary Constituency (PC) is all set for a bypoll on October 6. The seat became vacant after its MP, Pradyut Bordoloi of the Congress party, became an MLA from the Dispur constituency with a BJP nomination in the 2026 Assam Assembly election. A total of 16 candidates are contesting the bypoll, among whom the BJP, Congress and AIUDF are the three major parties.
The Nagaon PC was territorially readjusted in the Assam Delimitation-2023 based on the 2001 Census. According to the Delimitation report, it has 1,891,150 voters, of whom 189,777 (10.04%) are SC and 171,388 (9.06%) are ST.
The PC has eight Assembly constituencies: Jagiroad (SC), Lahorighat, Morigaon, Dhing, Rupohihat, Samaguri, Nagaon-Batadraba and Raha (SC). Four of them are currently held by the BJP, three by Congress and one by Akhil Gogoi-led Raijor Dal.
Nagaon PC is one of the few constituencies in Assam where Muslims constitute a majority. According to news reports, it has 55% Muslim voters and the remaining 45% are non-Muslims, largely Hindus. As such, the constituency assumes significance because of its demographic composition. The numbers would suggest a clear advantage for a candidate who can consolidate the Muslim electorate, but there lie certain underlying intricacies.
Two aspects of the numbers are crucial here. First, Nagaon PC has a Muslim majority, but it also has a significant number of Hindu voters, who account for almost half of the total electorate. Second, the constituency is headed for a triangular contest among the BJP, Congress and AIUDF.
The politics of a narrow demographic gap
It has been observed on many occasions that a demography with an almost equal share of voters between Hindus and Muslims is more prone to competitive mobilisation on both ends. In other words, religious polarisation becomes more likely in such a demographic composition. Such corresponding religious mobilisation often results in each community voting en bloc for its respective candidate.
But this is not always the case, and Nagaon is probably such an example. What makes the demographic composition of Nagaon even more fragile is the difference of nearly 10% between the two major communities. This makes corresponding religious mobilisation more vulnerable because of a mere 10% deviation gap.
Muslims in Assam have traditionally voted for Congress, particularly until the advent of AIUDF in 2006. The division of the Muslim electorate between Congress and AIUDF has benefited the BJP on many occasions in Assam. Moreover, the BJP has made significant inroads into the Muslim electorate in Assam through welfare schemes, recognition and misrecognition, and the politics of fear psychosis.
For instance, in the 2024 parliamentary election, the Muslim-majority Karimganj PC in Barak Valley was won by BJP candidate Kripanath Mallah, with a significant section of Muslims voting for the party.
The winning margin of the BJP MP was smaller than the votes secured by AIUDF in the constituency. Such a split in the Muslim vote could potentially have been avoided by an alliance between Congress and AIUDF, but such is not the case in Nagaon.
Congress, on the other hand, has become concentrated within the Muslim-dominated constituencies of the state. This was evident in the 2026 Assembly election, where the party won 19 seats, among which only one was represented by a Hindu MLA. This has prompted the BJP and AIUDF to label the party as a neo-‘Muslim League’.
Even in the 2024 parliamentary election, Congress proved that it continued to hold sway across the Muslim belts, such as Dhubri, where Rokibul Hussain defeated Badruddin Ajmal of AIUDF by a margin of 10 lakh votes. In Nagaon, the party defeated the BJP by a margin of more than two lakh votes. In Karimganj, however, the party lost to the BJP by a margin of just 18,360 votes.
Congress and AIUDF face different tests
But the question is, can Congress continue its sway this time too in Nagaon? The answer does not seem to be a simple one. Apparently, Nagaon has assumed strategic significance for the party now. It has nominated Shibamoni Bora to contest from Nagaon, who is a native of the constituency.
By nominating Bora as its candidate, the party has signalled its willingness to regain the lost indigenous Hindu trust. Thus, the Nagaon bypoll offers a twin opportunity for Congress to continue its sway among Muslims while also securing the trust of indigenous voters. The intricacy for Congress, however, lies in accommodating both interests simultaneously.
AIUDF, on the other hand, stands as a weakened and declining party. It has zero MPs and just two MLAs in the state Assembly. It is considered a Muslim electorate-based party whose decline in Assam politics has been connected to the rise of the BJP in Assam since 2016.
AIUDF is currently fighting for its survival, and Nagaon appears to offer an opportunity for the party to revitalise itself among its lost support base. Thus, Nagaon has become a test of sustenance and relevance for the party.
Winning Nagaon would mean a revival of the party among Muslims in the post-delimitation reality of Assam politics. Losing Nagaon would mean the continuing decline of the party owing to its shifting support base.
Besides this, AIUDF, to continue its relevance in Assam politics, requires an alliance with Congress-led INDIA at the Centre and the ‘Mahajot’ at the state level, as it has been completely otherised in state politics by both the BJP and Congress.
This is largely due to its Bengali Muslim support base, who are otherwise generally perceived as ‘illegal immigrants’ in Assam.
Thus, in order to overcome such an otherised and weakened position, forging an alliance with anti-BJP parties is a strategic need of the hour for AIUDF. But to materialise such an alliance, AIUDF needs to maintain its visibility in the electoral landscape.
This visibility has to be inclusive of all and not exclusive to Muslims if it is to claim an alliance with the Pradesh Congress-led ‘Mahajot’.
Nagaon, in this sense, offers a twin opportunity for AIUDF to prove its relevance while simultaneously retaining its core support base. Nagaon, a constituency with an almost equal share of Hindu and Muslim voters, has thus become a litmus test for AIUDF, with party chief Badruddin Ajmal himself contesting.
Hence, the Muslim electorate, being in the majority in Nagaon PC, seemingly holds the card, but a potential triangular split of the electorate might alter the outcome.
Views expressed are that of the author and do not reflect EastMojo’s stance on this or any other issue. The author is a Research Scholar at the Department of Political Science, Dibrugarh University.
Also Read: How solar energy is strengthening healthcare across Mizoram
You just read a story that took days to report. Help us keep our reporters on the ground in the Northeast.
Ad-free reading, support and keep important stories alive
Support once (any amount)
Scan to pay via UPI