Guwahati: About 90 per cent of the Himalayan region is projected to face drought lasting over a year if global warming increases by 3 degrees Celsius, as per recent research.
The study, published in the journal Climatic Change, reveals that adhering to the temperature goals outlined in the Paris Agreement—limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius—can potentially prevent 80 percent of the increased human exposure to heat stress in India, compared to a scenario with 3 degrees Celsius warming.
Conducted by a team led by researchers at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in the UK, the research quantifies how climate change risks to human and natural systems escalate at a national scale with rising global temperatures.
Comprising eight studies focusing on India, Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Ghana, the findings indicate that risks of drought and flooding, declines in crop yields, and loss of biodiversity and natural capital significantly rise with each additional degree of global warming.
In India, for instance, the study highlights that pollination is reduced by half at 3-4 degrees global warming, in contrast to a quarter reduction at 1.5 degrees.
Maintaining global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius would allow half of the country to serve as a refuge for biodiversity, whereas only 6 percent would remain so at 3 degrees, according to the researchers.
The study also identifies substantial increases in agricultural land exposure to drought with 3 degrees Celsius warming, projecting that over 50 percent of agricultural land in each of the countries studied could face severe droughts lasting longer than a year over a 30-year period.
However, limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would reduce the increase in exposure to drought on agricultural land by 21 percent (India) to 61 percent (Ethiopia), as well as mitigate economic damages due to fluvial flooding—occurring when rivers and streams overflow onto adjacent low-lying areas.
The researchers stress the urgency of intensified efforts to curb global warming, cautioning that current global policies are on track to result in 3 degrees Celsius of warming.
One paper within the collection explores the risks to plants and vertebrates due to increasing global warming, while another develops a new natural capital risk register for each of the six countries, incorporating projected changes in risk stemming from future human population changes.
This combination of studies reveals that many areas in the six countries are already at high natural capital risk at 1.5 degrees Celsius, particularly when factoring in the effects of increasing human population.
The findings underscore the necessity of expanding protected area networks to ensure climate-resilient biodiversity conservation. Although the studies focus on risks to six countries, the researchers emphasize that similar issues are projected to affect other nations as well.
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