India is currently undergoing the third phase of the Lok Sabha elections. This celebration of democracy or Chunaav ka Mahaparva in the world’s largest democracy is happening in seven phases across the country. At this stage when the attention of the whole country is on this ongoing election, snapshots from a report released by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) have surfaced on various digital platforms.
Based on the study of the population between 1950 and 2015, the report titled “Share of Religious Minorities: A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015)” in its one paragraph study on India claims – 7.82 % decrease in population of Hindus (from 84.68 % to 78.06 % ) portrayed parallelly with the 43.15% rise in Muslim population (from 9.84% to 14.09 %), 5.38 % increase in Christian population (from 2.24% to 2.36%), 6.58% increase in Sikh population (from 1.24 % to 1.85%). Further, the study also notes a minute increase in the Buddhist population (from 0.5% to 0.81%); and a further decline is observed in the numbers of Jain and Parsis community.
Though the study aptly portrays the change in population of various religious groups in India, it fails to underline the complexities of the increase in Muslim and Christian population as well as the steady decrease in Hindu population.
One of the reasons that India has seen growth in the Muslim population is due to the lack of education and accessibility in the community. The National Family Health Survey (2019-21) highlights the relationship between education and the number of preferred children.
Every woman who has 12 or more years of school prefers 1.8 children compared to 2.8 children in women with no schooling. The Muslim community, according to the same report, has considerably less access to education.
The median (in terms of years) period of schooling in people who are not from the SC, ST and OBC is 7 years for females and 8.5 years for males. However, for the Muslim female, it is 4.3 years and 5.4 years for the males.
This education gap also determines their choices regarding childbirth and population. The direct result is seen when the report claims that 64 per cent of married women aged 15-49 want more children compared to 72 per cent of Sikh and 71 per cent of Hindu women.
The study also fails to take into account the geopolitical issues in countries surrounding India and the open borders India has historically shared with some of the other countries that have led to organic migration between countries.
Some of the rise in the population of Muslims and Christians can also be attributed to the conversion of the marginalised castes and tribes who to escape the brunt of the caste system decided to change their religious identity.
The report unfortunately contributes to the homogenous narrative of the ‘extraordinary fertility’ of Muslims and Christians by not engaging with any literature that provides a nuanced understanding of the phenomenon.
Moreover, the decrease in the Hindu population does not need to be due to the increase in the Muslim population. It can be due to various factors like change of nationality among affluent Indians who had access to better quality education and infrastructure.
The Sangh Parivar has always argued against the reproductive rights of the religious minorities. Their narrative attributes the growth of the population of Muslims and Christians as a way to colonise India which in their view is a Hindu country.
From time to time, India has witnessed slogans like ‘Hindu Khatre Mein Hai’ (Hindu is in danger) from the supporters of the Sangh.
The report unfortunately strengthens their claim as it leaves space to form conspiracy theories around the increase and decrease of the population.
The lack of discussions around the reasons for growth or degrowth by citing scholarship makes it feasible to condense the dataset in the form of a single screenshot to circulate it widely. Furthermore, one needs to question the intention of the report as it hardly adds anything new to our understanding of religious minorities.
The report just cites what is already available based on the census data. The report has been released amidst the elections. These two factors, combined, raise serious concerns as they can easily trigger a series of communal reactions in an already volatile space.
Rishiraj Sen is a research associate at IIM-Ahmedabad. Shweta Jha is an independent researcher.