According to the latest forecast from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), La Niña conditions could emerge towards the end of the year. The probability of a transition from neutral conditions to La Niña conditions is currently at 55 percent, which increases to 60 percent from October 2024 to February 2025.
La Niña is a climate pattern that brings cooler temperatures and changes in wind patterns to the tropical regions. Generally, La Niña has opposite climate impacts to El Niño. However, the effects of La Niña are influenced by human-induced climate change, which is increasing global temperatures.
Despite the La Niña conditions, the temperature of Earth continues to rise, and the effects of human-induced climate change remain significant. The latest climate data indicates that the 2023-24 El Niño event started in June 2023 and peaked in November 2023 to early 2024. Although the La Niña event has cooled the atmosphere, the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures remains unchanged due to the heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
The WMO’s Early Warnings for All initiative remains committed to providing timely warnings and early actions to help climate adapt to changing conditions. The initiative emphasizes the importance of sustainable development and climate resilience, particularly for the most vulnerable groups.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo highlights that “Since June 2023, we have seen an extended streak of exceptional global land and sea surface temperature. Even if a short-term cooling La Niña event does emerge, it will not change the long-term trajectory of rising global temperatures due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”
The latest Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU) from the WMO indicates that widespread above-normal sea-surface temperatures are expected to persist in all ocean basins apart from the near-equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. This is in line with the predicted emergence of weak La Niña conditions. WMO Regional Climate Centres and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) will closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.
The WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts predict a 55% likelihood of a transition from the current neutral conditions to La Nina conditions during September-November 2024.