Contrary to the expectation of Russia’s president Vladmir Putin and, arguably, the rest of the world, the Russia-Ukraine war has now gone on for almost 500 days. With a counteroffensive now in motion by the Ukrainian forces and Russia just surviving what would have appeared to be a domestic uprising (or mutiny), it is unclear what the direction of the conflict is and just how long the world needs to wait for any sort of resolution between the two countries.
In a recent chat with Prassenjit Lahiri, senior partner at SFC Asia (Social Friendly), a consulting firm based out of South Asia and Dr. Aparna Pande, Director of the Initiative on the Future of India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute, Washington DC, gives a comprehensive insight into the state of things, challenges and diplomatic fisticuffs, as well as possible resolutions, if any.
While experts agree that both nations may have to make some compromises and give something for peace to come, it doesn’t seem like both Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky would be willing to back down or let go of the stakes that led to the war in the first place. What is, however, clear is the impact the war has had on the rest of the world, especially in its early months. From rising inflation and energy shortages, to heightened diplomatic tensions between blocs, it would take a while for the wounds to heal.
Unraveling the complexities, counting the cost
Putin never thought the war in Ukraine would drag on for months. In fact, his “special military mission” in specific regions of Ukraine was supposed to only last a few weeks at most. Today, the opinion of many is that Russia’s military is weaker than it was a year ago. Dr. Pande believes the region and the rest of the world would now have to live through it. Both sides are stuck where they are at the moment. The counteroffensive by the Ukrainians is to push back the Russians from strategic places, and then be in a strong position to negotiate.
“However, the situation has been one step forward and two steps back or two steps forward, one step back for months. Even though we know the Russians have challenges, they have a big military, and they’re used to suffering losses too. Remember the Battle of Stalingrad? The scorched earth policy? They have been through worse before, especially during the World Wars. On the other hand, the Ukrainians are getting lots of economic and military support from not just the United States and Europe, but also from Canada, Japan, and Australia. So, I don’t think anybody sees a quick victory for either side,” she says.
The uncertainty and seeming unpreparedness for a long-stretched war also seem to be having an effect on both nations. While large-scale infrastructural destruction and economic decline continues to greet Ukraine, Russia is threatened by not just Western interests, but also internal dissenting voices. Dr. Pande believes this is expected when an autocrat has been in power for so long, and especially if he’s imposing a war that many of his people do not want to fight.
“There are opposition figures like Alexei Navalny, who is still in prison, and many others around the world who Russia has to put up with. Many Russians have fled the country and are refugees because they don’t want to fight. So, the country has had to rely on criminal elements, the mercenary groups. But anytime you use a mercenary group or you use multiple mercenary groups, anytime the state cedes coercive power of the state to a non-state entity, you always create problems for the state. The state is the only entity in any country which should have the power to use force and military equipment,” she explains.
The assumption that Putin has created such multiple mercenary groups in order to hold on to power is, therefore, frightening, especially considering the failed mutiny which lasted one day. Recent shakeups within Russia’s military ranks also seem to suggest that all is not well as it seems that Wagner may have infiltrated the nation’s military ranks with the idea of toppling Putin’s government, but the man in the Kremlin is holding on with brute force and resolve. When Prassenjit Lahiri hints at a possible larger domestic instability in Russia, Dr Pande says the world will have to wait and see.
“Putin may be weaker than he was a year ago, but he still has tremendous power. He has his own paramilitary force that protects him, and for anyone, even Prigozhin, to take that on, they’d require much more support from within the military,” adds Dr. Pande.
Global Spill Offs: Living through the crisis
Russia was and still is a big crude oil supplier globally. In fact, it is the second biggest producer of oil in the world, only second to Saudi Arabia, leaving much of Europe and Asia largely dependent on her for their energy needs. With the war and deepening diplomatic rows, Russia’s refusal to supply crude oil to most of Western Europe and also demanding that those who must buy must do so in Russian ruble, a global energy crisis became imminent, with countries like Germany scavenging to meet its energy needs. More demand and less supply also saw crude oil prices go up significantly in the months that followed the war.
Although the situation has eased out a bit, Dr. Pande believes it has led to complex relationships and complications for nations like China. “For China, the relationship with Russia has sort of grown in recent time, but it wasn’t always so. In fact, China and the former Soviet Union had a lot of disputes, especially along the borders. Russia is a big country in terms of land mass, but they have a pretty small population compared to other big nations. With excess land and a declining population, Russia’s lands have seen an increasing influx of Chinese migrants. This has been ignored by Russia because they’re seeking a better relationship with China,” she says.
“This is simple; they need China for access to the world and global economic interactions. As for India, even though the relationship with India was better in the past, especially with helping India with the UN Security Council and other diplomatic matters, it has dwindled in recent times. Russia now favours China more than India in the last decade,” she says. The complexity is also further exacerbated by India’s growing relations with the US and the West, putting a strain on their relationship with Russia.
For decades, India has also depended on Russia for its military hardware, over 70%, according to Dr. Pande. The expert, however, paints a scenario where India is unable to secure military weapons, spare parts and equipment from Russia due to its ongoing war with Ukraine, and also as a result of evolving ties with China. On the flipside, India still purchases Russia’s oil, and has not publicly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and has called for peaceful negotiations between both countries, as it has relations with both.
“Even though Russia only supplied 1% of India’s oil imports, it is still a strategic partner. Now, with lower prices, India has imported more than it can use, thus refining and selling much of it to other countries as well,” she notes. But the situation is likely to get more complicated when prices even out eventually. So, with such trade relations in oil and military equipment, will India begin to consider other options. “Coupled with Russia, India also buys weapons from Israel, France, and the United State, and a recent visit to the US also saw the signing of some defense agreements with General Electric,” she further adds.
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Possible outcomes: Resolving the conundrum
There doesn’t appear to be an end in sight, or at least no one has seen any resolution happening soon. Lahiri handled the chat quite well, bringing up the place of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the scheme of things, and trying to dig deep into the mind and thinking of Dr Pande. The expectation is that the war would continue for a while, maybe months and maybe even years, no one can tell. As with other experts, the only way a quick resolution will be reached is if both countries agree to let go of some of their demands and concede in some way.
Some conspiracy theorists are of the opinion that Putin could be ousted by a military coup led by Generals who may be tired of the war. Even though recent events have raised eyebrows, that possibility is still a bit far-fetched, seeing that Putin’s security measures are near paranoia. Whatever the case, Dr Pande believes the world will need to adjust, new alliances would need to be formed, and things will continue to move slowly unless something drastic happens.
Also Read | The rise of Yevgeny Prigozhin: Once a food caterer, now Putin’s biggest threat