Guwahati: Deforestation has long been a concern for Northeast India, with its ecologically sensitive regions witnessing a steady decline in forest cover. But which areas are more prone to deforestation? A groundbreaking study published in the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment journal now provides answers by identifying deforestation hotspots using advanced Multicriteria Decision-Making (MCDM) models.
Deforestation susceptibility is defined as the likelihood that a forest area is at risk of deforestation. This assessment takes into account a combination of environmental, physical, climatic, and human-induced factors. The study used cutting-edge MCDM models, including VIKOR, SAW, EDAS, and WASPAS, to analyze the influence of 20 key factors such as slope steepness, forest density, proximity to settlements, soil texture, and distance from agricultural land.
Led by researchers from Fakir Mohan University, Utkal University, and international collaborators, the study examines forest cover dynamics and deforestation susceptibility across Northeast India from 2001 to 2021. It highlights significant forest loss in regions of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, and Tripura, marking them as areas highly susceptible to future deforestation.
“Our analysis indicates that a significant amount (10.49%) of the total forest area has been destroyed in the last two decades (2001–2021) in the Northeast,” the study states.
The susceptibility maps created using the VIKOR model underscore Assam, Tripura, and Arunachal Pradesh as particularly vulnerable. Factors influencing deforestation include altitude, slope, slope aspect, and distance from roads, settlements, rivers, and forest edges. The researchers noted that in Assam, the proximity of forests to the Brahmaputra River and road networks increases deforestation risks. Meanwhile, forests in Arunachal Pradesh are highly vulnerable to climate change.
According to the Forest Survey of India (FSI) 2021 climate change exposure hotspot map, which considers combined changes in temperature and precipitation, northern Arunachal Pradesh emerges as highly susceptible to climate change impacts. Furthermore, the FSI report highlighted frequent forest fires in Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur, Meghalaya, and Tripura during 2020–2021, adding to forest degradation concerns.
Shifting cultivation, also known as Jhum cultivation, remains widespread among the tribes inhabiting the hilly terrains of the northeastern states, covering about 86% of the region’s cultivated area. The slash-and-burn practices associated with Jhum cultivation were identified as a major factor in forest loss during 2017–2019, according to the FSI 2021 report.
The study’s authors stress the need for a comprehensive approach to address deforestation in Northeast India. They call for the development of policies that focus on sustainable land-use practices, promote eco-friendly agriculture, and safeguard ecologically fragile areas. The predictive capabilities of MCDM models could be instrumental in these efforts.
“By identifying high-risk areas, we can prioritize intervention strategies,” the researchers noted. “This will allow policymakers to target conservation efforts more effectively and allocate resources to areas where they are most needed.”
The study also emphasizes the importance of community involvement in forest conservation. The authors recommend engaging local communities in participatory forest management to ensure the success of conservation initiatives. Additionally, they suggest involving stakeholders in determining the weighting of MCDM model criteria to create well-informed and locally accepted policies.
With its detailed insights and actionable recommendations, the study provides a robust framework for addressing the ongoing deforestation crisis in Northeast India.
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