Explained: What happens if UDP MLAs join the BJP in Meghalaya?

For the past few weeks, Meghalaya’s political circles have been abuzz with reports that a large section of the United Democratic Party (UDP) legislature party could cross over to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The reports have varied between eight and nine of the UDP’s 12 MLAs, but no sitting MLA has formally announced a switch so far.

The speculation intensified after eight UDP legislators met Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi on August 10, in the presence of BJP Northeast in-charge Sambit Patra.

The UDP has maintained that the meeting was about the proposed amendments to the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act and other issues concerning Meghalaya. But the timing and subsequent political developments have given the meeting a much wider significance.

The Shillong Times reported that a second round of discussions involving UDP legislators and senior BJP leaders was expected in New Delhi at the end of August. Reports subsequently suggested that as many as nine of the UDP’s 12 MLAs were considering joining the BJP.

The names most frequently linked to the talks include Education Minister Lahkmen Rymbui, Kyrmen Shylla, Pius Marwein, Balajiedkupar Synrem, Synshar Lyngdoh Thabah, Mayralborn Syiem, Olan Singh Suin and Matthew Kurbah. Paul Lyngdoh has also been mentioned in some reports, although he has not confirmed that he is part of the group.

The numbers matter because the UDP is the second-largest constituent of the ruling Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA-II), with 12 MLAs, while the BJP currently has only two.

If eight UDP legislators were to move together, they would reach the two-thirds threshold required for a merger under the anti-defection law. The BJP would then have at least 10 MLAs; if nine joined, it would have 11.

UDP says no split, but leaders acknowledge discontent

UDP president Metbah Lyngdoh has repeatedly rejected the suggestion that his party is on the verge of a mass defection. According to reports from The Meghalayan Express, Lyngdoh said on August 31 that he had personally spoken to all 12 MLAs and that none had told him they intended to join the BJP. He described the reports as speculation and said the party had no problem “as of now”.

Lyngdoh has also disputed reports about the movements of the legislators, saying that some of those reportedly travelling together were actually in different places for personal or official reasons.

He maintained that the meeting with Amit Shah was related to the FCRA issue rather than a political merger.

But the denials have been accompanied by more ambiguous statements from other UDP figures. Senior party leader and Education Minister Lahkmen Rymbui told Highland Post that the possibility of a political realignment should not simply be dismissed as speculation.

He described the reported defection as a matter of “probability”, while stressing that individual legislators would ultimately have to take their own political decisions.

More significantly, Paul Lyngdoh has acknowledged that there is genuine dissatisfaction within the UDP. According to reports from The Sentinel Assam, he said he had himself raised concerns at a recent General Executive Council meeting about the party’s lack of progress and direction. He also said that development proposals from UDP legislators had not received adequate attention during his time as a minister.

The roots of the discontent appear to go back further. The September 2025 Cabinet reshuffle saw Paul Lyngdoh and Kyrmen Shylla dropped as UDP ministers, while Metbah Lyngdoh and Lahkmen Rymbui entered the Cabinet. The episode exposed tensions within the regional party, even though the UDP remained an important component of Conrad Sangma’s government.

Why a BJP-UDP realignment would matter

The immediate significance is numerical, but the larger implications are about the future of Meghalaya’s regional politics. Eight UDP legislators led by Rymbui are now understood to be waiting for clarity from the BJP’s national leadership before deciding whether to make the move.

The legislators are reportedly seeking assurances on a range of Meghalaya-specific issues, including recognition of Khasi in the Eighth Schedule, changes to the Meghalaya Residents Safety and Security Act, coal mining, and other regional concerns. They are also reportedly seeking a larger share of ministerial positions.

That is important because the reported negotiations do not appear to be simply about individual political careers.

Reports indicate that the legislators have placed several regional demands before the BJP leadership, including Khasi language recognition, changes to MRSSA, coal-mining rules, relocation of the Dalit Sikh community from Them Iewmawlong, minority status for Seng Khasi and Seng Raij, and greater support for border trade and church-related infrastructure.

For the BJP, absorbing a large section of the UDP would dramatically expand its footprint in Meghalaya before the 2028 Assembly election. BJP leader Alexander Laloo Hek has made clear that the party is open to such a development.

According to reports from The Meghalayan Express, Hek said the BJP’s doors were open and that the party was working towards a BJP-led government in Meghalaya, while stressing that the final decision on such a merger would rest with the national leadership.

For the UDP, however, the stakes are existential. It has historically been one of Meghalaya’s principal regional political forces, particularly in the Khasi-Jaintia Hills.

A mass movement of its MLAs to the BJP would leave the party severely weakened and could accelerate the broader shift from regional parties towards national-party politics.

It would also change the internal balance of the MDA-II government. The BJP could move from being a minor ally with two MLAs to one of the coalition’s largest components, giving it considerably greater leverage over ministerial portfolios and policy.

Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, whose NPP has 33 MLAs, has sought to play down the speculation. Sangma said the government remained stable and that he was “in the dark” about the reported move.

For now, therefore, the central fact is that there has been no formal defection of sitting UDP MLAs to the BJP.

What has changed is that speculation has moved beyond anonymous political whispers: UDP leaders have acknowledged internal dissatisfaction, BJP leaders have openly discussed the possibility of new entrants, and negotiations involving central BJP figures have been reported.

The next decisive test could come from New Delhi. Former UDP leader Jemino Mawthoh has already announced that he will join the BJP on September 12. His move follows months of discussions with BJP leaders.

Whether that remains an isolated defection or becomes the first visible step in a much larger realignment could determine the shape of Meghalaya politics well before the 2028 election.

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