It is that time of the year when Karuna Sindhu Sarkar, a 35-year-old man from Golakganj in Dhubri district, keeps busy with his watermelon plantations.
Sarkar wakes up before everyone else in the family and goes to his farm at 6 in the morning to adjust the sand around the plants. The next thing he does is water it. The paddy fields are dry and sandy, perfect for the melons. However, this time, Sarkar’s work has been doubled thanks to the dry and hot winds.
Earlier, I used to water the plants once a day in the morning, but now I have to water them twice. It gets dried up too quickly. Thankfully, the river is nearby. But as I use a motor to fetch water, my electricity bills have doubled as well.”
Rahman is talking about the Gangadhar River, which originates from the Bhutan hills and flows through the Dhubri district in western Assam. It has somehow so far managed to retain a sufficient amount of water amid extreme heat and dry winds, which has not been the case with many rivers in Northeast India.
Why does the heatwave hit differently in Northeast India?
“Between 2013 and 2022, heatwaves have seen an increase of 34% in the Northeastern region,” says Rahul Mahanta, Director at the Centre for Clouds and Climate Change, Cotton University.
Mahanta said if the temperature in a plain area hits 40 degrees Celsius or surpasses it, it is regarded as the impact of a heatwave. Likewise, in hilly areas, if the temperature is 30 degrees and above and 37 degrees and above in coastal areas, these areas are regarded as under the impact of heatwaves.
According to Mahanta, the last time the region experienced such a heatwave situation was in 2016 due to the El Nino phenomenon, which surpassed the La Nina events, its cooler counterpart.
In another state of Tripura, which is one of the worst affected states in Northeast India by the heatwave, the government has declared it a state disaster. Its capital, Agartala, which recorded the highest temperature on April 30 in 1960 at 41.5 degrees Celsius, has witnessed one of the warmest Aprils, where its temperature is in the range of 38 to 39.3 degrees Celsius. Likewise, in Meghalaya’s Garo Hills, all state-run and state-aided schools remain closed due to the temperature rise.
Heatwaves would impact people in Northeast India because they are not acclimatised to this kind of situation, unlike people in central and western India, claims Mahanta.
“Northeast India is more humid than other parts of India. Usually, our body’s mechanism is such that we sweat to adjust to the rise of heat. During high-humidity hours, sweating is less efficient or not at all efficient in this part. This will be a problem for us during heatwaves. In other parts where there is less humidity, the body has a mechanism for adjusting to the temperature. So heatwaves in the Northeastern region are a major distress with a combination of air and humidity. If you look at the relative humidity in a dry area, we have more than 70% humidity.” Mahanta told EastMojo.
One of the worst impacts of rising temperatures amidst heatwaves is predicted for the agricultural sector. A change in rainfall pattern and rise in average temperature in the Northeast region have resulted in crop loss, pest growth, and the spread of diseases.
Dr Simanta Kalita, a Guwahati-based environmentalist, has stated that one of the intangible impacts of the heatwave will be on the rivers of Northeast India.
Talking to East Mojo, Dr Kalita said, “Most of the rivers of the Northeast regions have originated from the Himalayan glaciers. When heat waves strike, the glaciers melt quickly and increase the water volume. This creates a sudden flood. If the heatwave situation strikes frequently, suppose that every summer, water deposits will vanish from the glaciers, and it would create a deficit of water during the winters as well. We have rivers like Nameri that do not dry up during the winters as there is a flow of cold water during that period.”
He also said that the malaria belt in the region has taken an upward curve because of the temperature rise.
“Earlier, Assam used to be in the malaria belt. Malaria was not found in the upper reaches of Arunachal Pradesh or Sikkim. But now malaria cases are frequent in these areas as well.”
He also said that due to a rise in temperature and changing rainfall patterns, the migration of birds, breeding of fish, and agriculture will be hugely impacted in the region.
About time we talked about climate justice
According to Rahul Mahanta, while many feel that the traditional communities are more resilient to heat waves and other extreme weather events than the urban dwellers, in the current scenario, these communities, which contribute very little to heat waves, would be the sufferers.
“While we love to believe that traditional communities are more resilient, now those with financial resources will be able to fight the crisis. The urban people will use the resources to beat the heat and other extreme climate events. It’s high time we talk about climate justice and make those people accountable who are the major contributors to global temperature rise.”
However, the resilience of urban communities is not sustainable, says Dr Kalia.
“Those living in urban areas may use the air conditioners to beat the heat or stay in high-rise buildings away from sudden floods. But these are artificial resiliencies. On the other hand, the practices of tribal communities promote sustainable resilience. Like the housing patterns. Many communities live in flood-resilient houses like “Chaang Ghar,” made of local materials. They do not disturb the slopes while constructing them.
So the flow of water does not get disturbed, and there are fewer landslides. So we need to learn from the traditional practices of such communities and thus try to strike a balance between the environment and development,” he adds.
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Skymet, India’s leading weather forecasting and agriculture risk solution company, has predicted that the upcoming monsoon will be ‘below normal’ to the tune of 94% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long-period average of 868.6 mm for the 4-month period from June to September this year.
“The likelihood of El Niño is increasing, and its probability of becoming a dominant category during the monsoon is growing large. El Nio’s return may presage a weaker monsoon”, it states.
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