Guwahati: Northeast India is one of the few regions in the country where temperatures could exceed the survivability threshold, according to a World Bank report on Climate Investment Opportunities in India’s Cooling sector.
“Currently in India, the wet bulb temperature during the worst heat waves rarely, if ever, exceeds 32-degree centigrade. However, climate models project that these temperatures could exceed the survivability threshold (that is 35-degree centigrade) at a few locations in the Chota Nagpur plateau and Northeast India under future climate scenarios of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report known as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios,” the report states.
Wet-bulb temperature is an indicator that combines air temperature and relative humidity to provide a more accurate measure of heat stress on the human body than air temperature alone.
Wet-bulb temperatures are projected to approach the 35°C threshold under the RCP 8.5 scenario by the end of the 21st century over the Ganges River valley, North-Eastern India, eastern coast of India, and Chota Nagpur Plateau.
Minister of State (Independent Charge) Earth Sciences Jitendra Singh said in the Parliament that Meghalaya and Nagaland apart from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal, have shown significant decreasing trends in southwest monsoon rainfall during the recent 30-year period (1989-2018). There have been many IMD reports which have revealed deficit rainfall in many parts of the Northeast.
“India could become one of the first places in the world to experience heat waves that cross survivability limit,” the Bank said in its report.
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Severe heat waves, responsible for thousands of deaths across India over the last few decades, are increasing with alarming frequency. The country is experiencing higher temperatures that arrive earlier and stay far longer.
In April 2022, India was plunged into the grip of a punishing early spring heat wave that brought the country to a standstill, with temperatures in the national capital, New Delhi, topping 46 degrees Celsius (114 degrees Fahrenheit). The month of March, which witnessed extraordinary spikes in temperatures, was the hottest ever recorded.
“India will witness rising temperatures and heat stress due to climate change and will require massive cooling infrastructure to mitigate negative impacts on health and productivity,” the report says.
In August 2021, the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that the Indian subcontinent would suffer more frequent and intense heat waves over the coming decade.
The G20 Climate Risk Atlas also warned in 2021 that heat waves across India were likely to last 25 times longer by 2036-65 if carbon emissions remain high, as in the IPCC’s worst-case emission scenario.
Up to 75 percent of India’s workforce, or 380 million people, depend on heat-exposed labour, at times working in potentially life-threatening temperatures. By 2030, India may account for 34 million of the projected 80 million global job losses from heat stress-associated productivity decline.
Without targeted adaptation actions that provide access to sustainable cooling, around 160-200 million people could be exposed to lethal heat waves as early as 2030 in India annually.
Under a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario for air-conditioning growth till 2030, only about half of the population will have access to air conditioning. Access to cooling for the rest of the population will require the implementation of other measures.
According to the analysis presented in the India Cooling Action Plan (ICAP), only 8 percent of Indian households own air-conditioning units. Indoor and electric fans can help to maintain thermal comfort, but these too are expensive to buy and inefficient.
“As a result, many poor and marginalised communities across India are more vulnerable to extreme heat, living in inadequately ventilated, hot, and crowded homes without proper access to cooling. Staying cool during extreme heat is about more than just comfort – it can constitute the precarious line between life and death,” the report states.
According to the World Bank, a sustainable cooling strategy for India will also help in post-COVID recovery by creating jobs, securing the supply chains of medical care products and food, and boosting the economy. The development of the agriculture cold chain sector alone has the potential of creating 1.7 million jobs.
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