Guwahati: Meghalaya now has its first-ever district-level climate vulnerability maps — and they paint a worrying picture. A new scientific study published in Scientific Reports finds that West Khasi Hills and East Garo Hills face the highest climate risks in the state, driven by steep terrain, shrinking forests, widespread poverty and unstable agricultural yields.
Earlier assessments for Meghalaya were conducted only at the block level. This new study, led by researchers at the Meghalaya Climate Change Centre and partner institutions, offers the most detailed district-wise evaluation yet, using an IPCC-aligned AR5 framework that measures vulnerability based solely on socio-economic and ecological conditions rather than mixing them with hazard exposure.
Situated in the Eastern Himalayas, Meghalaya’s steep slopes, erratic monsoons and dependence on climate-sensitive sectors like farming and forestry amplify its risk. Social factors, including uneven development, poverty and limited healthcare access, further weaken communities’ ability to cope.
“This study provides valuable insights into the climate vulnerability of Meghalaya,” the authors wrote, noting that their framework integrates key biophysical and socio-economic indicators to capture the state’s diverse risks.
The assessment examined eight indicators, including slope gradient, forest cover, poverty, female literacy, infant mortality and variability in agricultural yields. Agricultural yield variability received the highest weight due to the dominance of farming in the state.
A Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI) was developed to rank the districts, with West Khasi Hills emerging as the most vulnerable with a CVI of 0.58. East Garo Hills followed with a CVI of 0.49, and West Garo Hills, with a CVI of 0.46, was also categorised as highly vulnerable. These districts share two critical stressors: extremely steep slopes that heighten landslide and erosion risks, and declining forest cover that undermines ecological resilience and rural livelihoods.
Across Meghalaya, forest loss was the largest contributor to vulnerability at 26.38 percent, followed by slope steepness at 21.21 percent and poverty at 19.98 percent.
The study also reinforces earlier projections of more erratic rainfall patterns, shorter but more intense monsoon spells, and temperature increases of 1.5°C to 3.8°C under future climate scenarios.
These trends are expected to worsen floods, landslides, crop losses and infrastructure damage. Extreme weather events such as storms, heatwaves and flash floods are also projected to intensify in the years to come.
The authors describe their framework as both replicable and policy-ready, emphasising that it can directly inform district-level climate adaptation and resource allocation, particularly in a state often hampered by data gaps.
They recommend immediate action in the high-risk districts, including substantial investments in healthcare and education, diversification of rural livelihoods, strengthened social protection schemes such as MGNREGA, and large-scale forest restoration initiatives.
The study concludes that the framework not only identifies vulnerability but also provides a proactive roadmap for climate adaptation that is scientifically robust and socially inclusive.
Without focused planning and targeted interventions, the researchers warn that districts like West Khasi Hills and East Garo Hills could face deepening climate-linked hardships in the decades ahead.
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