Guwahati: As deadly floods and cloudburst-triggered disasters continue to batter parts of Pakistan, Nepal and India, scientists have warned that communities across the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) face an increasingly volatile monsoon marked by prolonged dry spells interrupted by short bursts of extreme rainfall capable of triggering flash floods, landslides and glacier-related disasters.
The warning comes after recent cloudburst-induced flooding in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan and intense rainfall that triggered floods in Arunachal Pradesh, even as the Hindu Kush Himalaya Monsoon Outlook 2026 projects below-normal seasonal rainfall across much of the region.
“The biggest misunderstanding is that less seasonal rainfall means lower flood risk,” said Saswata Sanyal, Disaster Risk Reduction Specialist at ICIMOD. “Seasonal forecasts describe average conditions over several months, not what happens in a single valley. Under El Niño, long dry spells can be interrupted by intense local storms that trigger devastating flash floods and landslides.”
Scientists say this apparent contradiction defines this year’s monsoon. While El Niño is expected to reduce overall rainfall across much of South Asia, short-lived weather systems can still unleash intense localised downpours that overwhelm mountain catchments and trigger disasters within hours.
The result is a more erratic and unpredictable monsoon, where extended dry periods strain agriculture and water supplies, even as isolated cloudbursts continue to threaten lives, infrastructure and livelihoods.
Above-normal temperatures are expected to compound the risks, particularly in glacier-fed river basins of the Indus, Ganga and Brahmaputra. Higher temperatures accelerate glacier and snowmelt, increasing river flows while destabilising mountain slopes and moraine-dammed glacial lakes.
“The recent flooding in Pakistan’s Thore Valley demonstrates that hazards in the HKH are no longer occurring in isolation,” said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD. “Heavy rainfall, glacier melt, unstable slopes and fast-rising rivers can interact to create cascading disasters. Preparedness must reflect these compound risks rather than treating each hazard separately.”
The mountain research organisation urged governments to prepare simultaneously for drought, heat stress, flash floods, landslides and glacier-related hazards instead of treating them as separate risks.
It said particular attention should be paid to settlements along riverbanks, steep mountain slopes and rapidly growing urban centres across Nepal, northern and northeastern India, Pakistan and other vulnerable mountain regions, where fragile geology, rising temperatures and expanding infrastructure are increasing disaster exposure.
Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Water and Disaster Risk Reduction Lead at ICIMOD, said mountain communities have long combined scientific forecasts with traditional knowledge, a practice that will become increasingly important as rainfall patterns grow more erratic.
She cautioned that settlements on steep slopes and along riverbanks remain among the most vulnerable locations during this year’s monsoon.
Qianggong Zhang, Head of Climate and Environmental Risks at ICIMOD, said disasters across the HKH are becoming more frequent and increasingly complex, while preparedness systems continue to focus largely on individual hazards. He stressed the need to strengthen transboundary early warning systems and information sharing as risks increasingly cross river basins and national borders.
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Navneet Yadav, Team Lead for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Resilience at Palladium India, said heavy rainfall in Himalayan headwaters can rapidly translate into flooding downstream, making continuous monitoring of upstream conditions critical for reducing flood risks across entire river basins.
With several weeks of the monsoon remaining, scientists cautioned that the greatest danger is assuming that fewer rainy days will automatically mean fewer disasters. This year’s monsoon, they said, demands preparedness for drought and devastating floods at the same time
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