The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced on Monday that the country added 46.7 million jobs in the fiscal year ending March 2024, a figure that significantly surpasses estimates from private surveys that suggest high unemployment rates.
According to the RBI’s data, the employment growth rate for 2023/24 was 6%, compared to 3.2% in the previous fiscal year. This information comes from the central bank’s analysis of industry-level productivity and employment.
Analysts have associated the issue of unemployment and high inflation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent electoral challenges. Last month, PM Modi’s party failed to secure a majority in the directly elected house of parliament, necessitating reliance on allies to form a government for his third term.
The total employment in India reached 643.3 million in 2023/24, up from 596.7 million in the prior fiscal year, as per the RBI’s data. The central bank utilises data from the government’s National Accounts and the Ministry of Labour to project the nation’s productivity and employment figures.
Typically, the RBI’s reports have presented only historical data. However, on Monday, the central bank announced that it is attempting a provisional estimate of productivity for the entire economy for the financial year 2023/24 based on currently available information.
This release follows a Citibank report from the previous week, which suggested that an economic growth rate close to 7% would generate only 8 to 9 million jobs in India, falling short of the 11 to 12 million needed.
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“Even 7% GDP growth might not be able to fulfil the job requirement over the next decade,” wrote Citi’s chief India economist, Samiran Chakraborty.
In a separate statement, the federal labour department disputed Citi’s report, stating that their estimates indicate an average of over 20 million employment opportunities per year were created between 2017-18 and 2021-22.
Meanwhile, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, a private think tank that monitors joblessness in the country, estimated that the unemployment rate in India rose to 8% in the fiscal year 2023/24, up from 7.5% and 7.7% in the preceding two years.
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