Guwahati: The Manipur crisis is about to complete a year, yet, there is no visible improvement in the situation; rather, the divide among communities is even deeper and the situation is becoming more sensitive and precarious.
Though the violence is subsiding, one cannot be sure that normalcy will bounce back in the near future as uncertainty continues to prevail. There are frequent reports of sporadic violence, with bandhs, curfews, and internet shutdowns at the drop of a hat.
The violent conflict between the Meiteis and Kuki-Zo communities has led to more than two hundred lives lost, more than sixty thousand people displaced, and hundreds of houses and villages burned down.
The conflict has severely impacted the lives of lakhs of people in Manipur, who are directly and indirectly affected by the crisis. Thousands lost their homes, thousands were uprooted from their livelihood means, and lakhs of students’s education was disrupted. Healthcare and medical services became casualties.
After over ten months, people remain in relief camps on both sides of the divide. Camps were set up on an emergency basis in schools, community halls, and other places like churches. As per reports, there are 351 relief camps across the state. Several displaced families live with their relatives or are scattered in rented accommodations.
The relief camps are in dilapidated conditions and lack basic amenities. All of the relief camps in the tribal hill areas of the Kuki-Zo communities are reported to be in such condition.
According to reports from September last year, a total of 37 people, including minors, have died in relief camps in Lamka, Churachandpur district. The underlying cause is various ailments and the unavailability of medical care facilities, besides the absence of basic amenities.
All through the months, these camps are managed voluntarily by philanthropic organisations with donations from individuals, churches, and civil societies. There is no proactive support or help coming from the government, especially in the tribal hill areas impacted by the violence.
The state administration has been severely impaired. Law and order take a back seat as radical groups take things into their own hands. Community volunteers are armed to the teeth on both sides. Over three thousand weapons were looted by mobs—more than once—from the state forces in various police stations in the valley districts of Imphal. Not even a quarter of these looted arms and ammunition were recovered.
Mobile internet, including broadband, was immediately cut off when the violence began in May until December 2023, also recorded as India’s longest-ever internet shutdown.
A week into the mayhem, a massive exodus took place. All Kuki-Zos settled or working in Imphal and adjoining areas were transported to Kuki-Zo tribal hill areas, while all Meiteis in Kuki-Zo districts were shifted to Meitei valley districts.
As it stands, besides the ethnic divide between the Meiteis and the Kuki-Zo, there is sharp polarisation. Each community is in its own (dominated) district. Kuki-Zos do not go to the Meitei areas, while the Meiteis do not venture into the Kuki-Zo areas. Buffer zones that serve as a line of control were constructed to indicate the geographical demarcation. These buffer zones are popularly called “duty posts,” protected with bunkers and manned by armed volunteers.
Given the situation, the Kuki-Zo communities are entirely cut off from the state capital, the centre of administration and economy. Already inhabiting the less developed parts of the state, Kuki-Zo people are facing extreme hardships in terms of economy, education, and health emergencies.
Meanwhile, a demand for a separate administration for the Kuki-Zo-inhabited areas gains momentum. While on the Meiteis front, the past months saw a list of demands coming from civil society, the Meira Paibis (women torch bearers), and other Meitei organisations.
These demands include, among others, conducting the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in Manipur and scrapping the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with Kuki-Zo insurgent groups. Most significantly, these demands came from Arambai Tenggol, a Meitei radical group.
The Arambai Tenggol, in a sensational event on January 24 this year, literally forced 37 Manipur Meitei MLAs and the sitting two Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha MPs from the Inner Manipur parliamentary constituency to take an oath to fulfil their demands.
Suspension of Operations (popularly known as SoO) has been going on with the Kuki-Zo rebel groups—the KNO (Kuki National Organization) and the UPF (United Peoples Front)—since 2008, and a tripartite political dialogue with the state, centre, and group started in 2016. A demand to fast-track and expedite at the earliest possible time is also growing louder.
The SoO agreement between the Kuki-Zo rebel groups is extended periodically. In the latest development, the extension or renewal has been put on hold. This comes in the aftermath of the state government’s last assembly in February, which took a resolution to break away from being a party to the tripartite dialogue.
Under pressure to give in to the demands of the Meitei civil societies and radical groups, the Biren Singh-led government sought the union government to abrogate the SoO agreement. The centre’s response to this is yet to be made known.
State Chief Minister Biren Singh and Meiteis accused the Kuki-Zo rebels of creating the mayhem. Singh and the Meiteis alleged the Kuki-Zos as “illegal migrants” coming from across the border and are the root cause of the present ongoing crisis. These “illegal migrants” are also categorically called “narco-terrorists” and were accused of indulging in the “illegal business” of drugs and sponsoring the Manipur violent crisis.
In view of this, the Manipur state CM had appealed to the central government for the suspension of the Free Movement Regime (FMR) along the India-Myanmar border. The central government has considered this demand and fencing of the border is said to have begun, causing uneasiness among the tribal communities in Manipur in the remote border areas.
Meanwhile, the NRC demand has come strongly from the Manipur valley. The NRC is believed to clear the state of “illegal migrants.” Whether all of these could possibly bring normalcy and peace remains to be seen.
At the moment, the Manipur crisis is taking a turn in terms of silence as the election draws closer. The two warring groups’ attention is being diverted to the election. Things seem to be calm on the frontlines.
With the general election around the corner, could there be some hope and respite for Manipur? But then, Manipur sends only two members to the Lok Sabha and only one to the Rajya Sabha. Perhaps just two parliamentary seats is insignificant and unimportant.
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