Dr Andrew Michta on India’s role amid geopolitical shifts, energy crisis, more

The world is yet to fully recover from the socio-economic impact that the war in Ukraine came with, despite nations having to adjust and form new alliances, bilateral trade agreements, and also look inwards for subsistence. It is now more than 500 days since Russian forces moved into Ukraine in what its leader Vladmir Putin described as a “special military operation”. While the war has disrupted socio-economic activities in many nations, the recent mutiny staged by Wagner against the Putin administration brought to light a new dimension to the conflict.

In a recent conversation with Prassenjit Lahiri, Senior Partner at SFC Asia (Social Friendly), a boutique consulting firm based out of South Asia, Dr Andrew Michta, Dean of the College of International and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Centre for Security Studies, tried to make sense of the complexities arising from the war, its impact on international and trade relations, Putin’s ambitions, the power tussle between the West on one side and Russia-China on the other side, as well as the global energy conundrum.

The Russia-Ukraine dilemma and evolving global power systems

The war that has gone on for more than 16 months has had a tremendous impact on global politics. When Mr. Lahiri asks about the multifaceted impact on both parties and the rest of the world, Dr. Michta describes the war as a system-transforming conflict. “This war sort of ended the three decades of peace that the world enjoyed after the Cold War, where we saw governments reduce their defense spending. Now, we have the largest conventional war in Europe since 1945, and defusing the conflict now seems more complex than expected”.

“This is further exacerbated by the fact that we’re now facing a potential threat from two world powers, Russia and China aligning against the United States and other global democracies,” he says. Dr. Michta perceives Russia from a revisionist point of view, with Putin seeking to continue what was started during the Cold War. On the other hand, “China is more concerned about replacing the world system by using its ideology of mercantile capitalism and becoming the dominant power. So, time will tell how these interests will align,” Dr. Michta adds.

The political scientist talks about an inflection point in the history of global politics that will determine what kind of military countries need as well as how countries have become dependent on their adversaries for minerals, equipment, and certain commodities. The current situation certainly calls for these questions to be revisited. There’s also a process of vassalisation emerging, where Russia now depends on China to buy its crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). In fact, the South-East Asian nation now buys more Russian oil than ever before.

“The entire geopolitics of Eurasia is changing as a result of this new dynamics, and we will probably not see the endgame here until we see some serious impact domestically. We’ve seen some instances of that like with the attempted Mutiny by the Wagner people and also the amount of outflow of Russian citizens who do not support the war and Putin’s actions. Although it’s difficult to say what the long-term impact on Russia will be, clearly it will destabilize the country domestically,” he adds.

The attempted mutiny by the Wagner group lasted only one day, but it somewhere revealed a crack in the walls of Russian military leadership. “Obviously shaken by it, Putin’s response may also be an indication that it is possible to stand up to the Russian ‘Czar’ and get away with it for now,” hints Michta. There is a sense of rebellion within the military, and Michta says that would explain why there was no immediate response from the military, even after the group penetrated Rostov, gunned down some Russian helicopters, and killed some soldiers.

Still, many observers believe Putin can use the incident to his advantage, by telling the people that the threat is real, and that the enemy is not just outside but also within. Dr Michta believes this may just be what he needs to galvanize the support of his people and complete his mission of occupying Ukraine once more and making it a part of the Russian empire. But Russia’s military past should also be a source of worry, as Michta points out.

“They have done poorly historically, like in 1904 when Russia lost the war to Japan at the Battle of Tsushima; then in 1914 when the Germans defeated Russia, leading to a mutiny in the Russian army; then there were the revolutions and the bloody Civil war; and more recently in 1989 when Russian forces left Afghanistan, and two years later the state ceased to exist. I would pay close attention to how things pan out in Ukraine, because if Russia fails to succeed, it can have severe political and economic consequences for the country,” says Michta.

The energy crisis, China, and Indo-American Relations

Diplomatic relations are formed by circumstances, needs, and the desire of nations to occupy stronger positions in the games nations play. One of the ripple effects of the war was a global energy crisis, because Russia — as the world’s second largest producer of crude oil — was blacklisted by many nations. On the other hand, Russia itself imposed certain conditions for buying its oil, such as buying with Russian ruble, a condition that discouraged many other European nations.

China immediately stepped in to help Russia offload much of its oil. Even before now, Russia has been dumping a lot of cheap oil in the system, scooped up by countries like China. On the other hand, China (and much of Asia) offers cheap labour, causing most industries to move their supply chain to China and the Asian region. “This modernised and industrialised China in a way that has made China a real existential threat to the West. We call it a pacing threat in our national security documents.

“Russia is a relatively simple problem. It’s largely a military problem. It’s a small economy, it’s not really a leader in any area other than energy and then you know the military defense manufacturing and the nuclear power. China, on the other hand, is a very complex threat because it’s so embedded in our structures,” Michta notes. This has made China very powerful, even today and its relationship with Russia has become better in recent times.

In the same vein, India has increased the amount of oil it buys from Russia due to its cost advantage. Beyond oil, India has also historically depended on Russia for most of its military hardware, but the current situation and the resultant Russia-China relations have put India in a tight spot. In reaction, India is stepping up its relations with the US. Indeed, with growing Indo-American relations, especially with the recent visit by PM Narendra Modi and the MoUs signed, we may see a systematic shift from having to rely on Russia to doing military business more with the West.

Dr Michta believes it goes beyond that. “I think the question for India is where it wants to position itself in this great power tussle between democracies, especially in the face of the China-Russia de facto Alliance. Personally, I think India is positioned to play a much greater role internationally going forward in large part because of its population. It has exceeded China and the Chinese are looking at a very poor population projection picture going forward. India also has a highly educated and skilled population and I think getting closer to the West can accelerate the process of modernization in the areas of cutting-edge technology.

“So, this war is a kind of relative eclipse of Russia. Our assessment of how good the Russian military is has declined significantly. India used to buy a lot of Russian equipment when it came to weapon systems. The Indian government is probably scratching its head right now thinking, should we continue to buy it considering how inferior those weapon systems were relative to the Western systems? I think that for India it will be a question of how close it wants to get to the West both in economic and political terms, and then what are the risks for India when it comes to this relationship with China?” he quizzes.

Michta further narrates how he met an Indian senior military officer in a recent trip to Washington, and how “he underscored the importance for India not to be sucked into this tussle but to be able to preserve its autonomy, to be able to act independently. I think this crisis creates an opportunity for India to accelerate its modernization but also creates risks especially in this relationship with China,” he notes.

Possible future scenarios and the global power scene

Like many international relations and security experts have said, Michta believes that the relationship between India and the US (and the West by extension) will only get stronger, especially with new ties being formed. Lahiri pointed out that the Indian Prime Minister recently signed an MoU with GE for certain military systems. While this is good for India, it is bound to put a strain on its relationship with China and Russia. Creating the balance has seen India not take any public stance about the war, except suing for peace. However, one thing that Michta advocates is for the West to remove the blanket nature of the term “global south” because he believes India is unique because of its diversity, and has several advantages going for it.

“For Russia, it is more of a civilization war, getting more disconnected from the West and the war in Ukraine is just a pilot. It’ll be disastrous for anyone to underestimate the Russians, even though we know they are not as strong as Putin claims. However, the Chinese have a lot to gain from this debacle. We know that the support for Russia goes beyond buying its oil, there’s also a hardware component through North Korea, either by helping to move them or looking the other way.

“But what will they get in return? My first guess would be leverage. Also, the Chinese are building their Navy numerically, they’ve got a larger Navy now than the US, but in terms of quality they don’t come nearly close to the US. The point is that the Russians have developed weapon systems much more sophisticated, especially when it comes to submarines and hypersonics than anything the Chinese have been able to field. My concern is that the Chinese will try to target that more advanced Russian technology which the Russians managed to develop when they had access to Western systems.

“The post-Soviet designs like the proportional propulsion systems for their submarines, for example, are much quieter today than they used to be. The Chinese can’t build those, so they will get them from Russia. That can be threatening for the US and the West,” Michta says.

It’s impossible to tell which direction the war would go. The Russians are known for being resilient and have the capacity to regroup and remobilize. It is true that they may have been overestimated and the Ukrainians may have been underestimated, it doesn’t in any way mean they are weak. Hence, countries forming alliances have to be careful which way they go. One thing is certain though, nations will pick sides not based on morality or what is right, but simply based on interests.

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