The Tripura election lived up to its billing of being the most exciting election of the three, but perhaps the headline act is not the BJP’s return to power, or that the indigenous party TIPRA Motha made its presence felt. It is that rag-tag coalitions meant to fight ‘greater evil’ will not work against structured, organised parties.
The Congress-CPIM may disagree, but the only reason these two parties allied against the BJP is because of the painful realisation that they no longer have the means (financial or organisational) to take on the electoral behemoth that the BJP has become. The CPIM has been pushed into near oblivion in Bengal by the TMC and the BJP. And the Congress, too, has been pushed into near anonymity in states like Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland and off late, Tripura. Had it not been for a leader like Sudip Roy Barman, the party wouldn’t even feature in conversations about elections.
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But talk to CPIM leaders about how decades of Left rule ruined Tripura’s economy and they never fail to mention that it was Congress that denied them funds for years on end. The same party wants its voters to believe that it is now teaming up with the Left to beat a common ‘enemy’ of sorts. The idea seemed fanciful in the beginning, but it has been confirmed by the results: the electorate sees the facade and calls it out.
From the time the alliance was announced, it became clear that the two parties were banking on anti-incumbency, even though it was non-existent in the state. A state that voted for the Left for 5 terms was unlikely to vote out a government that, despite its critics, did a good job at keeping the pandemic in control in the state and improved social security schemes. The clear majority given to the BJP is a testament to its performance as much as it is a dismissal of opportunistic alliances.
Such has been the BJP’s performance that it has made the so-called kingmaker—TIPRA Motha—a target now. TIPRA Motha, which did not even exist in 2018, has replaced the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) as the state’s main indigenous party with 13 seats. Already, we are hearing the CPIM and Congress leaders complain about the role money played, but one look at the TIPRA’s performance is ample proof that as long as the people you seek to represent you, believe you, no money power can stop you from winning.
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But with BJP heading towards a clear majority, the kingmaker is now little more than a prey of sorts. Either the BJP takes them in as part of an extended alliance and addresses their concerns, or simply addresses their concerns without allying with them. The latter would make the BJP more popular in the tribal region while keeping the party on its tenterhooks. Do not be surprised if half the TIPRA MLAs have a change of heart and join the BJP over the next few months. TIPRA supremo Pradyot Barman may have dreams of leaving politics but doing so now will leave his party and their leaders in an extremely vulnerable position.
Last, this is a mandate for the BJP: the party has made several promises in 2023 like it did in 2018, and the party would do well to keep a track of its promises. Tripura needs a violence-free government that focuses on governance, generating employment and assuring equal growth for all regions. It needs the double-engine government the BJP never fails to talk about, and it needs it in the next five years.
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