What’s at stake if Nagaland gets its census wrong ‘again’?

Kohima: A census is far more than a headcount. It shapes where schools are built, how welfare schemes are designed, how much funding governments receive and how public resources are distributed. For Nagaland, however, the stakes are even higher.

More than two decades after the controversial 2001 Census, Nagaland Chief Minister Dr Neiphiu Rio says the state cannot afford another flawed enumeration. As preparations gather pace for India’s first fully digital Census in 2027, the government sees the exercise as an opportunity to correct years of distorted planning, rebuild trust in official statistics and ensure future development is based on credible data rather than inflated numbers.

The urgency of that message was highlighted on Wednesday when the House Listing Operations (HLO) formally began in Nagaland with the enumeration of Lok Bhavan, the official residence of Governor Nand Kishore Yadav, in Kohima. The exercise, conducted by Deputy Commissioner and Principal Census Officer B. Henok Buchem along with census officials, marks the first stage of the 16th Census of India and the eighth since Independence.

Unlike previous exercises, Census 2027 will be conducted entirely through digital platforms. Enumerators will collect data using a mobile application, citizens will have the option of self-enumeration through an online portal, and officials will use web-based monitoring systems and digital mapping to improve accuracy.

But behind the technological upgrades lies a deeper question: what happens if Nagaland gets its numbers wrong?

The census that changed everything

CM Rio, during a recent gathering in Kohima said the 2001 was ‘done very wrong’.

He pointed how the Census recorded an astonishing population growth of more than 60 per cent over the previous decade, more than three times the national average of around 20 per cent.

“How is that possible?” Rio recently asked while recalling the episode.

The state government, he said, eventually rejected the Census figures in 2003 and demanded a re-survey, arguing that the numbers did not reflect demographic realities.

Determined not to repeat the same, Rio said the state government adopted a different approach before the 2011 Census and churches, tribal organisations, village councils and civil society groups were actively involved in encouraging accurate reporting.

Instead of another dramatic increase, he said Nagaland recorded negative decadal population growth, with its population declining by more than 11,000 people compared to 2001.

“As a Christian state, we must make the correct census for our state,” he said.

Population data is the foundation of almost every government programme.

Schools, hospitals, roads, drinking water schemes, housing projects, welfare programmes and budget allocations are all planned on the basis of census figures. Rio pointed to the education sector as one of the clearest examples.

Citing the problem of excess teachers in the state, Rio said that government schools were sanctioned under the Right to Education framework based on projected population growth and expected student enrolment. But when officials later reviewed attendance, many schools had far fewer students than anticipated.

“Schools were opened because the census figures suggested there would be children. Later, the Ministry questioned why students were not attending. The reality was that the children simply were not there. The Census was done wrong,” the Chief Minister said.

Inflated population figures, he observed, also affected welfare delivery.

According to Rio, the state ended up with “too many” Below Poverty Line (BPL) beneficiaries, with even relatively affluent households finding their way into welfare databases.

He goes on to say that there is no district in Nagaland facing shortage of food grains. Yet many, including affluent families, have been recorded as BPL, creating the impression that Nagaland is poorer than it actually is.

“So people think that our state is very poor. But I think our people are comfortable,” Rio said.

He urged residents of the state to be more honest as the state must ensure proper planning.

The Chief Minister also advised village councils, tribal bodies, and civil society organisations to actively support the Census.

“The data we provide today will determine the future of our children for decades to come. Let us make Nagaland more peaceful, united and bright for the younger generations,” Rio added.

As the houselisting and housing census began on Wednesday, Rio took to X urging every household to participate in the exercise and provide accurate information to the census officials. He reiterated that public participation would help create reliable data for better planning, development, and informed decision-making for the future.

A digital census for a new era

The 2027 Census also marks a technological shift in India’s demographic history.

For the first time, the enumeration process is being conducted digitally using mobile applications, supported by online self-enumeration facilities and web-based monitoring systems.

Nagaland is seeking to strengthen that process further through advanced geospatial technologies.

At a recent technical workshop organised by the Nagaland GIS and Remote Sensing Centre, officials from the Directorate of Census Operations explored how Geographic Information Systems (GIS), drone mapping and artificial intelligence could improve the accuracy of household enumeration.

Senior Project Director Mhathung Kithan said the Centre has already created more than 350 GIS map layers, with every village and urban local body in Nagaland digitally mapped and georeferenced.

Combined with UAV imagery, the technology will allow officials to accurately identify and map every household before enumeration begins.

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