Even as India braces for a weaker-than-normal southwest monsoon in 2026 amid the looming return of El Niño conditions, the Northeast may emerge as one of the few regions relatively insulated from the sharp rainfall deficits expected across large parts of the country — underlining the increasingly uneven and regionalised nature of India’s monsoon system in a warming climate.
In its updated long-range forecast issued on Friday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) revised the all-India monsoon forecast downward to 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), compared to the 92 per cent projected in April.
More critically, the probability of a deficient monsoon has surged to 60 per cent, while the combined probability of deficient and below-normal rainfall now stands at 84 per cent.
The downgrade reflects growing concerns over the rapid transition of neutral Pacific Ocean conditions towards El Niño — the ocean-atmospheric phenomenon historically associated with suppressed monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent.
Yet, amid the broader national concern, Northeast India presents a more complex and comparatively resilient picture.
According to the IMD’s regional projections, the Northeast is the only homogeneous region in the country where rainfall probabilities remain relatively balanced across below-normal, normal and above-normal categories. The region is expected to receive near-normal rainfall in the range of 96–104 per cent of the LPA, unlike northwest India, central India and the south peninsula, all of which face heightened probabilities of below-normal rainfall.
The regional divergence underscores how India’s monsoon is no longer behaving as a uniform climatic system but increasingly as a mosaic of sub-regional weather regimes influenced by warming oceans, shifting wind circulations and changing land-atmosphere interactions.
For the Northeast — one of the wettest regions in the world and home to river systems critical to eastern India and Bangladesh — the forecast offers cautious relief after years of erratic rainfall patterns, flash floods and landslides triggered by extreme weather events.
Meteorologists say the region’s unique geography and proximity to the Bay of Bengal often allow it to retain moisture flows even during weaker all-India monsoon years.
“While El Niño generally weakens the Indian monsoon, the impact is not spatially uniform. Northeast India can sometimes retain relatively stable rainfall because of local topography, monsoon trough positioning and Bay of Bengal moisture transport,” said a senior climate scientist familiar with monsoon dynamics.
However, experts caution that “normal rainfall” in the Northeast does not necessarily imply climatic stability.
Over the past decade, the region has witnessed increasing rainfall volatility — alternating between prolonged dry spells and short bursts of extremely intense precipitation. States such as Assam, Meghalaya, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh have repeatedly experienced devastating floods, riverbank erosion and landslides even during years classified as “normal” in rainfall terms.
Climate scientists increasingly argue that cumulative seasonal rainfall data often mask the growing concentration of rainfall into fewer but more intense events.
The IMD’s latest forecast suggests that while parts of Northeast India may avoid the severe deficits expected elsewhere, other parts of eastern India and the adjoining monsoon core zone could face mounting agricultural stress.
The monsoon core zone (MCZ) — spanning parts of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Jharkhand — faces a 43 per cent probability of below-normal rainfall. This region forms the backbone of India’s rain-fed agriculture and is heavily dependent on timely monsoon rains for sowing rice, pulses, cotton and oilseeds.
Central India and the south peninsula also face below-normal rainfall probabilities of 43–45 per cent, while northwest India has a 46 per cent probability of below-normal rainfall.
The uneven regional distribution could reshape agricultural output patterns across the country.
While rainfall stress in central and western India may affect rice, sugarcane, soybean and cotton production, the Northeast’s relatively stable rainfall could partly support paddy cultivation, horticulture and plantation crops such as tea, rubber and spices.
States such as Assam, Tripura and Meghalaya are increasingly being viewed as strategically important for diversifying India’s agricultural geography amid growing climate uncertainty in traditional grain belts.
The Northeast has also emerged as a major horticulture zone, producing pineapples, oranges, bananas, kiwi, ginger, turmeric and large cardamom. Stable rainfall conditions during the monsoon could help protect output in these sectors even as other agricultural regions face moisture stress.
However, climate-linked vulnerabilities remain acute.
The IMD has warned that June rainfall across India is likely to remain below 92 per cent of the LPA, accompanied by above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures over most regions. Although the core heatwave belt remains concentrated over north, west and central India, parts of the Northeast may still experience warmer nights and rising humidity levels.
Some areas of Mizoram and Tripura are among the few regions where daytime temperatures could remain near or slightly below normal during June, reflecting the regional contrast within India’s evolving climate pattern.
Elsewhere, the heat outlook is far more severe.
Above-normal heatwave days are expected across Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, along with isolated pockets of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The IMD warned that prolonged heat conditions could intensify stress on water systems, electricity demand, healthcare infrastructure and urban services. The combination of deficient rainfall and extreme heat may also worsen groundwater depletion and reservoir stress across several states.
India’s vulnerability to monsoon variability remains structurally high. Nearly half of the country’s net sown area remains rain-fed, while agriculture continues to support more than 40 per cent of the population despite contributing roughly 15–16 per cent to GDP.
Economists warn that a weak monsoon could feed into food inflation, lower rural consumption and put pressure on hydroelectric generation, especially if reservoir levels fail to recover adequately during the season.
The broader climatic backdrop is equally concerning.
According to the IMD, there is now a 92 per cent probability of El Niño conditions developing during the monsoon season. At the same time, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — which can sometimes offset El Niño’s adverse impact by enhancing moisture transport towards India — is expected to remain neutral.
The absence of a strong positive IOD removes a key balancing mechanism that helped cushion India during some earlier El Niño years.
Historically, major El Niño years such as 2002 and 2009 were associated with severe rainfall deficits, drought conditions and spikes in food prices. However, scientists say climate change is now making these events more spatially fragmented and unpredictable.
For the Northeast, that means the challenge is no longer only about rainfall quantity but also rainfall quality and distribution — whether precipitation arrives steadily enough to support agriculture and water systems, or in sudden extreme bursts that trigger floods and infrastructure damage.
The IMD said it would continue issuing weekly extended-range forecasts and impact-based warnings throughout the monsoon season. Its next major update, including the July rainfall outlook, is expected in the last week of June and will be closely watched by policymakers, farmers and energy planners across the country.
Also Read: His church is silent, his school is empty: The long wait for Rev Manu Thiumai
You just read a story that took days to report. Help us keep our reporters on the ground in the Northeast.
Ad-free reading, support and keep important stories alive
Support once (any amount)
Scan to pay via UPI