Guwahati: The future of the world’s rhinos hangs in the balance. A new international report by CITES and the IUCN’s African and Asian Rhino Specialist Groups reveals a stark truth: while some countries have made encouraging progress in protecting rhinos, others are losing ground—fast.
The report paints a complex picture. Gains in rhino populations in parts of South Asia, Eastern Africa, and selected regions of Southern Africa reflect what’s possible when there is political will, long-term investment, and strong local and international collaboration.
India and Nepal, for example, have managed to keep poaching incidents relatively low through intensified surveillance and conservation programs, with the greater one-horned rhino population increasing slightly.
However, broader success hinges on continued global coordination and support to reduce poaching and dismantle trafficking networks.
The contrasting trends—gains in South Asia and Eastern and parts of Southern Africa, losses in other parts of Southern Africa and Southeast Asia—underscore both what is possible and what is urgently needed. Without enhanced enforcement, improved trade monitoring, and strategic conservation funding, the long-term survival of some rhino species remains in jeopardy, the report warns.
In contrast, regions like Namibia and South Africa—once seen as strongholds—have seen rhino numbers decline due to resurgent poaching, drought impacts, and policy shifts that have limited access to critical conservation services.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Javan rhino population suffered devastating losses, with 26 individuals reportedly killed between 2019 and 2023 by two poaching networks in Ujung Kulon National Park.
The report warns that the contrasting trends show two futures—one where rhinos thrive with adequate support, and another where they vanish due to neglect and organised crime.
Overall, rhinos on the African continent declined by 6.7% in 2024. By the end of that year, estimates recorded 22,540 rhinos in Africa.
This included 6,788 black rhinos (Diceros bicornis), Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, and 15,752 white rhinos (Ceratotherium simum), listed as Near Threatened. Black rhino numbers increased by 5.2% since 2023, while white rhinos declined by 11.2% during the same period.
While Africa grapples with sharp contrasts in rhino trends, Asia’s story presents a different mix of guarded optimism and critical challenges. Rhino range States reported 4,159 to 4,172 rhinos living in India, Nepal and Indonesia by early 2025—slightly higher than the 4,124 to 4,137 range reported in 2022, reflecting an overall increase of 0.3%. This modest gain is largely attributed to India’s conservation of greater one-horned rhinos, which helped offset significant losses in Indonesia.
Greater one-horned rhinos (Rhinoceros unicornis), classified as Vulnerable, have continued to increase in India and Nepal since 2007, reaching 4,075 individuals by the end of March 2025, up from 2,565.
According to IUCN Director General Dr Grethel Aguilar, rhino conservation is proving that change is possible. While challenges remain, successes in South Asia and parts of Africa show that intelligence-led enforcement, community engagement, and secure habitats can reverse declines. Lasting impact, however, demands sustained investment, political will, and global collaboration to disrupt trafficking and secure species’ survival. She added that expertise and collaboration – guided by tools like the IUCN Red List – are essential to prioritising action and saving species from extinction.
Dr Dave Balfour, Chair of the IUCN SSC African Rhino Specialist Group, noted that while encouraging gains have been made in black rhino recovery, the recent decline in white rhino numbers is a stark reminder that conservation progress remains fragile.
He emphasised that lasting success depends not only on strong protection, but also on integrated management approaches that include and empower local people. Conservation efforts grounded in local stewardship, shared benefits, and collaborative governance are essential to secure the future of Africa’s rhinos.
Dr Bibhab Kumar Talukdar, Chair of the Asian Rhino Specialist Group, said that while greater one-horned rhinos in India and Nepal have rebounded thanks to strong protection and declining poaching, Indonesia’s rhinos face a crisis.
The loss of 26 Javan rhinos between 2019 and 2023 and the absence of confirmed Sumatran rhinos in southern Sumatra highlight urgent threats. A time-bound recovery plan is critical to secure these Critically Endangered species.
Although the number of horns reported in illegal trade declined to between 676 and 853 annually from 2021 to 2023, experts caution that this does not indicate a drop in poaching. Instead, widespread dehorning efforts—intended to deter poachers—may be skewing detection data. Many dehorned carcasses are not included in seizure statistics, and without adjustments, the estimated average would still exceed 1,100 horns per year.
South Africa remains the epicentre of rhino horn trafficking, accounting for 66% of global seizure weight. It is followed by Malaysia, Vietnam, Qatar, and the UAE, which often act as transit or destination hubs. In early 2025 alone, South Africa lost 91 rhinos in just three months.
The report warns that organised criminal networks remain deeply entrenched and often outpace national enforcement capabilities. Investigations have also uncovered emerging links between countries not previously associated with rhino trafficking, such as Mongolia.
One of the most alarming findings is the lack of consistent reporting and secure management of rhino horn stockpiles. Major discrepancies were found in South Africa’s stockpile data, and several countries—including India and Nepal—failed to submit updated reports. In some cases, horn thefts were never reported to international authorities. These transparency issues, the report notes, seriously undermine enforcement and monitoring efforts.
The report calls for a strategic rethink of conservation financing. One promising model is the World Bank’s Wildlife Conservation Bond, which ties investor returns to measurable gains in black rhino populations—an approach that rewards performance and conservation success. Such innovations remain rare.
Traditional conservation models, heavily reliant on donor funding, are proving inadequate in the face of climate stress, cross-border crime, and declining political focus. The report argues that rhino protection must be reframed as a long-term, revenue-generating land use—integrating ecotourism, regulated hunting, and community-led ventures where appropriate.
In Africa, the newly introduced Rhino Conservation Framework (2025–2035) marks a pivotal shift toward a rights-based conservation approach. It emphasises the inclusion of Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs), collaborative security measures, and adaptive strategies that account for both climate challenges and conflict.
The mixed outcomes across regions make one point clear: rhino conservation is achievable—but fragile. Success depends on the right mix of leadership, funding, and cross-border cooperation.
Without enhanced enforcement, improved trade monitoring, and bold investment, the long-term survival of the world’s rhinos—especially the Critically Endangered Javan and Sumatran species—remains at serious risk.
The report concludes that rhino conservation is entering a new phase—one that requires not only biological insight but also an adaptive, interdisciplinary mindset capable of responding to a rapidly changing world.
This includes embracing co-development, co-responsibility and co-implementation with Indigenous Peoples and local communities.
Also Read: China’s Medog Dam is a geopolitical weapon disguised as green energy
You just read a story that took days to report. Help us keep our reporters on the ground in the Northeast.
Ad-free reading, support and keep important stories alive
Support once (any amount)
Scan to pay via UPI