Aizawl: Mizoram, located in the northeastern region of India, is experiencing significant changes in its climate, posing serious threats to its agriculture, ecosystems, and livelihoods.
These changes are marked by shifting rainfall patterns, temperature fluctuations, and increasingly unpredictable weather, all of which have far-reaching consequences for farming communities that rely heavily on the environment for sustenance. This explainer delves into how these climate shifts are affecting Mizoram’s agricultural productivity and its ecosystems.
Shifting Rainfall Patterns and Agricultural Challenges
Recent findings from the Climate Change Cell of Mizoram indicate alarming variations in rainfall patterns across the state. The study, which used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to analyze rainfall trends, revealed a significant reduction in post-monsoon and winter rainfall. These reductions are expected to worsen water shortages, intensify the risk of uncontrolled forest fires, and disrupt the agricultural calendar. The timing and amount of rainfall, which have always been crucial for crop cultivation in the region, are becoming increasingly unreliable. As a result, farmers are facing more frequent droughts, impacting crop yields and threatening food security.
Landslide Vulnerability Due to Altered Rainfall Patterns
In addition to the impact on agriculture, the analysis conducted by Mizoram’s Climate Change Cell highlighted an increased vulnerability to landslides in areas like Aizawl. The study found that heavy rainfall exceeding 16 mm per day, especially in the absence of prior rainfall, can trigger landslides in this region. Over the course of three years (2019–2021), the data collected revealed that 67 instances of rainfall surpassed the threshold for landslide risk, of which 13 resulted in actual landslides. The probability of landslides was calculated at 19%, underscoring the growing risks posed by the changing weather patterns in the state.
Rainfall and Temperature Trends Across Mizoram
A report prepared by the Mizoram Science, Technology, and Innovation Council in 2024 examined the rainfall and temperature fluctuations in the state between 1986 and 2017. According to the data, Mizoram receives an average annual rainfall of 2,551.88 mm, with districts like Champhai receiving the least (2,161.66 mm) and Lunglei the highest (3,204.73 mm). Despite receiving more rainfall than the state average, Lawngtlai and Serchhip districts experience the most variability in rainfall. This variability makes these districts highly sensitive to climate change, particularly in terms of agricultural productivity. As rainfall becomes less predictable, farmers in these districts are at greater risk of crop failure, especially since many rely solely on rainfall for irrigation.
Rural Livelihoods at Risk: The Impact on Jhum Cultivation
In rural Mizoram, a large proportion of households (45.29%) rely on Jhum (shifting) cultivation, which is heavily dependent on monsoon rainfall. This practice, a traditional farming method in the state, is particularly vulnerable to the changing climate. As rainfall patterns become more erratic, Jhum cultivators are finding it increasingly difficult to predict the onset and duration of the monsoon, leading to reduced crop yields. This, in turn, affects the livelihoods of those who depend on agriculture for survival. In addition to Jhum cultivation, other farming activities such as wet rice cultivation and orchards are also feeling the strain from the shifting climate.
Crop Failures and Pest Infestations
The changing climate in Mizoram is causing widespread crop failures, with several staple and cash crops facing increased vulnerability to pests, diseases, and adverse weather conditions. A survey conducted between December 2022 and January 2023 identified several crops affected by climate change, including ginger, stink beans, passion fruit, oranges, rice, corn, and chili. Farmers have reported losses due to pests like the fall armyworm, diseases like stink bug infestations, and crop damage caused by irregular rainfall and hail. In some cases, crops like rice and corn are suffering from grubs and diseases, leading to significant yield reductions.
While some short-term benefits have been reported—such as new fruiting in certain crops like stink beans, oranges, and tobacco—these gains are limited and do not offset the overall negative impact on agriculture. The majority of farmers are experiencing low productivity and are struggling to adapt to the rapidly changing conditions.
Shift to New Crops and Livelihoods
As traditional crops like bananas, tobacco, and apples are increasingly threatened by climate change, many farmers in Mizoram are abandoning these crops in favor of more resilient, exotic varieties that can withstand the unpredictable weather. Additionally, some communities are shifting to livestock farming, raising pigs and mithun as alternatives to crop farming. This shift reflects the farmers’ need to adapt to the new climate reality, but it also highlights the challenges faced by those who depend on traditional farming methods for their livelihoods.
Pest Infestations, Invasive Species, and Ecosystem Disruption
In addition to the challenges posed by changing weather, Mizoram is also facing increased pest infestations and the spread of invasive species. A State Action Plan on Climate Change prepared by the government of Mizoram in 2018 said the rising temperatures and CO2 levels have accelerated insect multiplication rates, making crops that were once resistant to pests more susceptible. At the same time, invasive species like Lantana camara are encroaching on native habitats, disrupting the forest ecosystem and altering soil nutrient cycles and water usage. This invasion of non-native species, combined with habitat fragmentation, has led to increased human-wildlife conflicts, as animals are forced to adapt to rapidly changing environments.
The report said, in recent years, the frequency of seed- and soil-borne rice diseases, such as stem rot, sheath rot, leaf scald, blast disease, and bakanae, has significantly increased. Several of these diseases are correlated with early winters and high rainfall during panicle formation. These factors were likely to have a negative impact on food security and crop production.
It also highlighted that erratic rainfall patterns have further disrupted their traditional cropping schedules and Jhum cultivation calendar. According to the Compendium of Environment Statistics Report 2016, heavy floods and rains in Mizoram during 2015 caused damage totaling approximately Rs. 63.60 lakh, with crop losses amounting to around Rs. 38.60 lakh
The productivity, distribution, and seasonality of fish species, along with the quality and availability of their habitats, are also highly sensitive to climate change. Likely impacts on fisheries include shifts in species distribution and migration, habitat fragmentation, changes in the sex ratio of certain species, depletion of dissolved oxygen, and alterations in breeding seasons.
The report further suggested that climate change is expected to severely affect livestock production systems worldwide. Increasing heat stress has hindered animal growth, reduced reproductive efficiency, and led to decreased milk and egg production. Additionally, rising temperatures had caused physiological disturbances and the emergence of rare diseases, alongside an increase in vector-borne diseases affecting livestock. For example, the outbreaks of Porcine Respiratory and Reproductive Syndrome (PRRS) in pigs and Goat Pox in Mizoram served as evidence of these climate-related challenges.
District-Wise Vulnerability and Adaptation Needs
A district-wise vulnerability index, based on both biophysical and socio-economic factors, revealed that Lawngtlai is the most vulnerable district to climate change, followed by Mamit and Lunglei. These districts, where agriculture plays a significant role in the local economy, are particularly at risk due to their reliance on consistent rainfall and the impact of extreme weather events. The vulnerability index emphasizes the urgent need for targeted interventions in these regions, including better water resource management, enhanced pest control, and the promotion of climate-resilient agricultural practices.
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