It has been less than 48 hours since Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya gave their electoral verdict in one of the most interesting election seasons in the Northeast in recent times. Each state lived up to the expectations and while many saw this as a ‘BJP win’, others pointed out that the three verdicts, if anything, show that regional parties are alive and kicking.
The only universally-agreed verdict was that the Congress, at least for now, looks well and truly buried in the northeast. The party managed to win a combined 8 seats in Meghalaya and Tripura and as expected, failed to open their account in Nagaland. Bharat Jodo Yatra did not reach the Northeast, and in retrospect, it seems like a smart move on the Congress’ part.
As someone who visited all three states and observed the excitement among the electorate, I can say that democracy is alive and kicking in our region, even though the nature of democracy was different in each state. Take TIPRA Motha, for example. A party that barely existed at the beginning of 2020, let alone the 2018 elections, managed to emerge as the second-largest party in Tripura. And it did so without the financial backing of the BJP and the Congress. In three years, the party has not only created an effective structure, but also succeeded in assuring its supporters that they are a viable solution to the shenanigans of national parties.
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But TIPRA Motha’s toughest phase begins now. As the IPFT learnt in 2018, winning a mandate is the ‘easy’ part. What follows decides your future and legacy. The IPFT won eight seats due to its promise of demanding a separate state for the indigenous population. Yet, in 2023, their inability to deliver on their promises meant not only that the party suffered rebellions among their ranks, but they also fell from eight seats to one. I will not be surprised if TIPRA Motha faces the BJP’s ire and watches helplessly as one after another MLA leaves them to join the BJP. Of course, if that does not happen, I would be happy to be proven wrong.
For me, Nagaland was a foregone conclusion, and I argued the same in one of my earlier columns. The opposition in Nagaland had bitten the dust, or rather, joined the government a year ago, so the only question we had was how many seats would the ruling alliance win. The BJP won 12 of the 20 it contested, the NDPP won 25 of the 40. With almost identical win rates (~60%), further bolstered by two seats each for NDA allies Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) and Republican Party of India (Athawale). That said, the shocking scenes of violence across Nagaland, witnessed before, during and after polls show that the state government will have its task cut out in terms of governance. Starting with a government that actually listens to its people throughout its tenure would be a good place to start. My lessons in Nagaland taught me that for many, the concept of democracy is far from clear in the state. For many, there seems to be no difference between democracy and power. That is never a good sign.
Meghalaya, I must admit, threw a few surprises, especially for those who drank national parties’ Kool-Aid without any question. Despite a tumultuous reign, Conrad Sangma and the NPP emerged victorious but more than that it was the performance of smaller regional parties like the Voice of the People’s Party and the United Democratic Party that confirmed the notion that regional parties are going nowhere.
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I would argue that the TMC missed a trick by going easy on the government and over-depending on Dr Mukul Sangma to make a mark. For a party that had no presence earlier, winning 5 seats may not be a bad performance, but for a party that was claiming it would form the next government, this was an embarrassment. The less said about TMC’s performance in Tripura, the better. The party pulled fewer votes than NOTA in Tripura, a clear indication that the party cannot depend on the Bengali-majority population to pull votes. The party’s failure, first in Goa, then in Meghalaya and Tripura, shows that the party, for now, has a lot to do. Acting humble would be a good way to begin.
I have been asked several times what the verdict across the three states means. For me, the crucial lesson here is that the Northeast people are desperate for things to change and they also realise that this is only possible by going with, not against, those in power at the Centre. The BJP might call it a double-engine government, but this is what a federal structure is always supposed to be like.
The region desperately needs specialised higher education centres, big investments in public health and urgent generation of quality employment. Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya may have voted differently and for different parties, but they all want the same: governments that deliver on promises and are accountable to their people. I hope the 2023-2028 period for these states is better than their past. They deserve better.
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