All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) are two Muslim-electorate-based political parties. The former rests its support base among the Bengali Muslims of Assam, while the latter’s support base is in Hyderabad and parts of Telangana.
In states like Maharashtra, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh, the latter also has pockets of influence among marginalised Muslim communities. This makes AIMIM a relatively broader and stronger party in relation to AIUDF in terms of support base and ideological appeal.
AIUDF currently has 16 MLAs in the Assam Assembly and no MP in Parliament, while AIMIM has 13 MLAs spread across three states—Telangana, Maharashtra, and Bihar—and one MP, the party president Asaduddin Owaisi himself, in the Lok Sabha.
In the run-up to the 2026 Assam Assembly election, AIUDF President Badruddin Ajmal has expressed a willingness to form an alliance with the AIMIM in the state. As of now, AIMIM has not contested any election in the state, and Owaisi has consistently refused to come to Assam due to the presence of Ajmal already.
However, Ajmal himself is now willing to form an alliance with Owaisi in the state, which is an interesting development in state politics that needs to be analysed and understood. The proposed alliance by Ajmal, although not yet confirmed or commented on by Owaisi, will be greatly influenced by certain factors.
Assam has been a unique case of Muslim politics in India, which is more based on debates around immigration, citizenship, and, more recently and vehemently, civilisational and cultural underpinnings.
AIMIM represents a pan-Indian Muslim narrative. Fitting the same in Assam would be problematic ideologically, structurally, and spatially.
In other words, AIMIM’s entry would mark the integration of Muslim politics in Assam with national contexts and narratively.
In AIMIM’s imagination, Muslims are a homogeneous electorate, while the Muslim electorate in Assam is heterogeneous both spatially and ethnically.
The alliance might harm the “strategic autonomy” that AIMIM enjoys in national politics by maintaining an avowed distance from the BJP and a subtle distance from the INC.
AIUDF has become a political “other” in the electoral dynamics of the state; association with it might also further endanger the secular credentials of AIMIM that it has earned in recent times.
AIUDF is also in ideological, organisational, and leadership disarray at the moment in Assam, whereas AIMIM is relatively more organised with a coherent ideology, a democratic and efficient leadership structure, and an upswing in electoral growth in the aftermath of the Bihar election, where it secured 5 MLAs.
AIUDF must be cautious here in forging an alliance with AIMIM because AIUDF’s support base is already splitting into at least three dimensions—BJP, INC, and new regional parties like AJP and Raijor Dal.
After the major setback in the 2024 parliamentary election, whether it would be wise for AIUDF to let AIMIM penetrate its support base is a question to be seen. As it seems, the motivation behind AIUDF’s willingness to forge an alliance with AIMIM is not about any comprehensive, sustainable, and holistic electoral agenda or upliftment of the community, but a mere survival tactic of AIUDF.
It would be a marriage of convenience rather than commitment, driven by AIUDF’s desperation and isolation stemming from getting ousted from the “Mahajot”.
The Muslim electorate in Assam today is hopeless, leaderless, and directionless. In such a vulnerable state of the electorate, it might be a good time for AIMIM to enter Assam, which would obviously come with great challenges too.
But there lies great potential for AIMIM to penetrate into certain areas of the Muslim electorate, especially among the young population—both men and women—who are impressed by the fiery speeches and statesmanship of Owaisi.
A section of the electorate might find in Owaisi a leader they have long been dreaming about. If AIMIM makes its stronghold, it might turn into a nightmare for AIUDF or, in fact, the last nail in its coffin.
However, it will depend on how both parties navigate together. But a potential clash is also very much possible in the near future if an alliance happens.
A key challenge for any alliance will be handling the narratives used by the ruling party, especially those that target Muslims, and specifically the Miya Muslim community. Such an alliance could increase tensions, with labels like ‘Bangladeshi’ often used in Assam politics possibly being joined by ‘Pakistani.’ This could help right-wing groups push their agenda further.
Another reason why the alliance might not work out well is the difference in charismatic leadership. Owaisi and Ajmal are both charismatic leaders in their own way for their own set of supporters.
Ajmal is a madrasa-educated religious “Maulana” whose mother tongue is Sylheti, a local language. He is still hero-worshipped in many poor Muslim households and is often referred to as “hujur”. People still line up to get healing water from him. His social service and charitable works have also generated a kind of goodwill among people.
In this charisma chasm, Ajmal is ahead of Owaisi in Assam. Ajmal’s appeal has a blend of both spiritual and socio-economic elements, which caters well to the needs of the Muslim electorate, which is largely poor and orthodox.
On the other hand, Owaisi is a modern-educated reformist Muslim leader who comes from Hyderabad and speaks Urdu. He does not have any prior groundwork (charitable works, social service, public engagement) in Assam.
So, most of the Bengali electorate, especially women and aged male folks, would not understand or accept Owaisi in comparison to Ajmal, who has a charismatic appeal.
On top of all these comes the question of delimitation. It has reduced the possibility of Muslim MLAs getting elected to the Assam Assembly from around 30 to 20—a reduction of 10 seats, which have been merged with neighbouring constituencies.
This limited scope for the Muslim electoral landscape in Assam, when faced with new electoral configurations, will only contribute more to infighting and possibly further vote splits, opening the scope for unfriendly parties like the BJP and INC.
Muslim politics in Assam offers a fertile ground for new electoral experiments, which AIMIM can capitalise on, while AIUDF is currently going through an existential crisis. One mistake can further jeopardise the party’s electoral future.
AIMIM too, which holds potential for Muslim representation, must proceed carefully while aligning with AIUDF—a party that is sinking but has not yet drowned.
However, it is also true to some extent that an alliance between Ajmal and Owaisi might be the beginning of a new era in the Muslim politics of the state, provided that the above-stated prospects and problems are taken into consideration by both groups.
The author is a Research Scholar at the Department of Political Science, Dibrugarh University. Views expressed are that of the author and do not reflect EastMojo’s stance on this or any other issue.
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