Guwahati has space for just 14 leopards.
That’s the stark conclusion of a new peer-reviewed study that models how Assam’s rapidly expanding capital is squeezing wildlife—particularly Indian leopards—into shrinking pockets of forest surrounded by concrete. And if urban development continues unchecked, the number could drop to just four.
The study, published in Environmental Monitoring and Assessment (2025), tracks four decades of change in Kamrup Metropolitan District and finds that suitable leopard habitat has declined from 11.39% in 1989 to just 0.33% in 2019. Meanwhile, built-up areas have surged from 6.23% to 16.99%.
The collaborative research was conducted by Jyotish Ranjan Deka of the Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Pranjit Kumar Sarma of the Department of Geography at Mangaldai College, and Uttam Lal of the Department of Geography at Sikkim University.
To understand how leopards navigate Guwahati’s urban matrix, the team combined satellite imagery, species distribution models, field surveys, and four decades of human-leopard conflict data. Their novel concept of “free space”—undeveloped land unimpacted by roads or buildings—was key to estimating how many leopards the city could realistically support.
The researchers surveyed 150 households across five urban forests, including Rani-Garbhanga and Fatasil Reserved Forests, and mapped historical conflict incidents. As the city expanded, so did the encounters—especially in areas where communities rely heavily on nearby forests for fuelwood, grazing, or agriculture.
“Our study revealed that higher forest dependency tends to correlate with higher probabilities of livestock attacks and human-leopard interactions, likely due to the closer proximity of human settlements to leopard habitats, as observed in Fatasil RF,” the researchers note.
Yet the study also uncovered nuance. Despite high forest use, Kamakhya Hill reported fewer leopard encounters, possibly due to strong local beliefs associating leopards with the goddess Devi—resulting in greater tolerance and less retaliation.
Urban development is taking its toll. The built-up area in Guwahati increased from 79.24 sq km under baseline conditions to 162.98 sq km in the highest urbanisation scenario modelled. In contrast, open space declined from 97.18 sq km to just 13.44 sq km, and suitable leopard habitat shrank from 54.48 to only 6.32 sq km.
“In the baseline scenario, we identified 15 habitat patches larger than 0.5 sq km, which declined to just four patches under the very high building scenario,” the researchers explain. “The effective leopard habitat in the baseline scenario was 27.27 sq km. Based on home range overlap assumptions of 50% for males and 45% for females, this area could support an estimated 14 leopards—around six males and eight females.”
They warn that even a modest increase in construction could reduce this number by half.
“In Guwahati, our projections show that even a low rate of increase in built-up areas could reduce leopard abundance to just seven individuals,” they write. “Given that Guwahati’s urban forest patches can still support a resident leopard population, understanding the prey base and conducting empirical assessments of leopard presence are essential for informed conservation planning.”
The loss of forest cover has also created ecological “edges”—zones where human-wildlife conflict is more likely to erupt. Fatasil RF, which has both high forest dependency and dense human habitation, emerged as the most conflict-prone site. In contrast, forests on the city’s periphery, like Amchang Wildlife Sanctuary and Rani-Garbhanga RF, recorded fewer incidents—thanks to better forest connectivity and prey availability.
“Our study paints a stark picture of Guwahati’s rapid urbanisation, revealing how shrinking forest patches and expanding concrete landscapes are pushing leopards to the brink,” said Dr Pranjit Kumar Sarma. “It underscores the urgent need to integrate wildlife conservation, habitat connectivity, and community engagement into the city’s future planning.”
The researchers recommend prioritizing habitat corridors, restoring degraded forests, and integrating green space into urban development to support both wildlife and local livelihoods.
“Our findings emphasize the urgent need to address habitat loss and degradation—not only to safeguard wildlife but also to support the socioeconomic fabric of forest-edge communities,” they stress.
The findings align with Target 4 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, which calls for managing human-wildlife interactions and reducing conflict by 2030.
For Guwahati’s leopards, time is running out.
Until concrete gives way to conservation, these big cats will be forced to navigate a maze of roads, buildings, and shrinking wilderness—symbols of a city growing fast, but forgetting its wild neighbours.
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