Guwahati: For most northeastern states, a drier-than-usual August resulted in their monsoon rainfall statistics falling below the seasonal average. But now, the recuperation process looks set to kick off immediately, with the region expected to begin September on a very wet note.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted fairly widespread to widespread light to moderate rains, along with isolated heavy falls (64.5 mm-115.5 mm), thunderstorms, and lightning across Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura during the next five days — from Thursday to next Monday (September 1-5).
Similar conditions are also to be expected across the adjoining subdivision of Sub-Himalayan West Bengal (SHWB) and Sikkim during this five-day forecast period.
Furthermore, isolated very heavy showers (115.5 mm-204 mm) are also likely to lash SHWB and Sikkim from Thursday to Saturday (September 1-3) and Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya on Friday and Saturday (September 2-3).
In view of these predictions, the IMD has issued an orange alert (‘be prepared’ for rough weather) over SHWB-Sikkim for the next 48 hours, after which the advisory will be downgraded to a yellow watch (‘be aware’ of weather situation). On the other hand, the seven northeastern states will all remain on a yellow watch for the next five days, although the alert level may get upgraded if the weather intensifies.
Meanwhile, the Northeast ended August in the same way it intends to begin September. Between the morning and evening hours of Wednesday (August 31), the IMD recorded rains and thunderstorms at many places in Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura; and at a few places in Assam and Meghalaya.
Between 8:30 am and 5:30 pm on Wednesday, the heaviest rains across India were recorded in SHWB’s Balurghat (4 cm), Tripura’s Kailashahar (3 cm) and Assam’s Tezpur (3 cm).
Despite this rain spell, however, the August precipitation for all northeastern states has remained below their individual averages for the month. These deficit figures are as follows:
- Arunachal Pradesh – 178.2 mm, 48 per cent deficit
- Assam – 207.3 mm, 39 per cent deficit
- Meghalaya – 250.3 mm, 57 per cent deficit
- Nagaland – 190.6 mm, 28 per cent deficit
- Manipur – 91.7 mm, 63 per cent deficit
- Tripura – 246.7 mm, 25 per cent deficit
Sikkim, on the other hand, recorded 462.6 mm rainfall — 11 per cent higher than its August average.
In spite of these August deficits, the seasonal rains recorded by most northeastern states between June 1 and August 31 remain in the ‘normal’ category (within 20 per cent of the long-term average). Manipur (461 mm) and Tripura (811.5 mm) are the only states to be suffering seasonal deficits worth 45 per cent and 29 per cent, respectively.
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