Meghalaya election results: Too close to call in Garo Hills?

Tura: With just a few hours to go before results for the most keenly contested election in Meghalaya will be announced on Thursday, most political experts as well as informed laymen are scratching their heads on what they believe could be the closest contest the region has witnessed ever.

Of the 24 seats in the Garo Hills region, not a single contestant can be pointed out as being out of the race. Even in Dalu, which has 9 contestants vying for the seat, there is no foregone conclusion on who is leading or is most likely to win. The BJP only has a slight advantage in the constituency owing to the population demographics.

“There is no forgone conclusion in any seat as everyone has put in their efforts at winning the seat. What has complicated matters in most of the constituencies is the presence of at least 4 serious party contenders – TMC, NPP, BJP, Cong and in some places, the UDP. Add some serious firepower from some independent candidates, and you have the ‘Khichdi’, said B Ch Sangma, a Tura resident.

Taking a close look at some seats shows the dilemma is being faced by pundits and candidates alike.

Take the case of South Tura – the seat being contested from by the chief minister, Conrad Sangma, expected in more ways than one to be an easy one. However, BJP’s Bernard Marak, TMC’s Richard Marak, former South Tura MLA John Leslee Sangma and the Congress candidate have all made it an interesting contest. In the end it could just boil down to who cuts who’s vote and by how much. No one is present and clearly a winner until the last vote is counted.

In a similar condition is Rongjeng, which saw 6 candidates vying to represent the people of the constituency.

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The NPP fielded sitting MLA,Jim Sangma while the BJP fielded Raphius Sangma, TMC fielded its former MLA, Sengnam Marak, the Congress Jewing G Momin UDP Andreas G Momin and Independent, Walseng Sangma.

As per locals, all those that are in the mix and equally capable of upsetting the applecart and the fight in the end may be about personal relations and micro calculations, as per one of the contestants, Raphius.

“I have done my extreme best in trying to win my seat and I hope I get through. It is not only about campaigns but also about micro assessments of situations. I have, I hope managed that and will come out on top. The rest I leave to God,” he said.

Raphius came third in the last MLA election and hopes to do two better this time.

Walseng Sangma, the Independent is among the top contenders for the seat which is expected to go down to the absolute wire.

The topsy-turvy nature of election always leaves things to chance. While one candidate may appear initially strong, calculations of a cosmic nature turn things around super quick.

“If things go right for the NPP, it could end up winning 14 seats in Garo Hills and if it does not it may end up with less than 5. Similar is the situation with the TMC. Whatever be the case, these two parties are expected to feature amongst the top 3 in almost all constituencies. It is, like everyone here is putting it, a mere question of margins,” felt another resident GM Sangma.

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The much awaited ‘exit poll’ put a spanner to people’s understanding of local elections. While some projected the NPP winning almost 27 seats, some others expected only 14. This vast difference in the projected figures has not gone down too well with the people.

“How can you have a 13 seat difference in a state with a 59 seat count? They have either goofed up big time or don’t know what they are talking about. Nothing better than to go to ground to develop your reports,” felt another, JM Sangma from Rongjeng. He is rooting for the Independent candidate, Walseng Sangma.

The election could also prove that there is nothing like a dead Congress, only a struggling one.

As per ground reports in Garo Hills, the Cong bandwagon is far from over. In at least 10 seats that it is contesting, it is serious about its chances in 10. It may end up winning at least 2-3 if luck favours the party.

For the BJP however, it is another story altogether. The party not only believes it can win about 10 seats from Garo Hills but is also confident that it will be the party that will lead the state in the coming days no matter what the outcome. It is looking good in at least 5 seats and has chances in another 3 in Garo Hills. Chances are that there will be more at play once the ground after counting settles.

“Home Minister, Amit Shah and PM, Narendra Modi have both come to visit Tura to show the intent of the party for the upcoming elections. Is there anything else that is required to show intent and how seriously the state elections are being taken by the BJP higher ups,” asked a BJP party leader who did not wish to be named.

Delhi and Guwahati may just come to the fore once again and instead of playing king maker, it may just want to choose the king from amongst its band of leaders in the BJP.

While everyone wants a stable government to rule the state, the fact that the mandate will be a fractured one is beyond doubt. Once the process of counting is complete, who forms the next government will depend completely on the willingness or unwillingness of the coterie of leaders to work with or without each other.     

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