The second term of the BJP-led state government in Manipur since 2022 has witnessed a series of missteps — from the emulation of Yogi-style bulldozer demolitions to ethnic conflict and the arming of civilians. Lawlessness prevailed, ultimately warranting the imposition of President’s Rule.
Under this arrangement, a phase of détente was ushered in, bringing a semblance of calm. Yet beneath this calm surface lie powerful undercurrents, unseen by many, as people await the completion of one year of President’s Rule.
The question now confronting Manipur is whether the installation of a popular state government, without addressing the root causes of conflict — particularly political and developmental inequity — will become yet another halfway measure. The outcome of a public rally called by the Zo (Chin–Kuki–Mizo) ethnic group in three districts on February 6, 2026, is likely to set the political tone for the months ahead.
Political pundits may have congratulated themselves for devising a formula of pacification by allocating one Deputy Chief Minister’s post each to the Nagas and the Kukis. However, they appear to have missed the strong undercurrents among the general public that have remained dormant during President’s Rule.
The message from the Zo (Chin–Kuki–Mizo) ethnic group is unequivocal: this is not about the spoils of politics or the gain of a Deputy CM’s chair. It is about ordinary people who have suffered and are waiting for a political settlement — not political positions for their MLAs.
A political solution could have begun with something as modest as hints of amenability to any arrangement within the state of Manipur, including the granting of Sixth Schedule status, even if it fell short of the demand for a separate administration. Such a step, though limited, could have served as a meaningful signal to initiate dialogue.
The Kukis have searched for a homeland since the time their migration into the North Eastern region began. The Lushai — later known as the Mizo — secured a mountainous homeland called the Lushai Hills, which eventually became Mizoram, evolving from a district of Assam to a Union Territory and then to a full-fledged state.
However, other tribal groups living in Manipur’s Churachandpur district were not included in the peace settlement under the Mizoram Accord.
This situation bears resemblance to the outcome of the 16-Point Agreement that created the state of Nagaland for the Naga people living in the Naga Hills and Tuensang Area in Assam and NEFA. That agreement left out Nagas living outside present-day Nagaland, offering only a distant hope for future consolidation under Point 13.
This mistake of “hope” was not repeated under the Mizoram Accord.
Yet, in the ethnic cauldron of the North East — where conquest and assimilation by kingdoms did not occur in the mountainous regions, except through administrative systems and the rule of law introduced by British colonialism — the key to resolving identity conflicts may still lie in the future consolidation of major ethnic groups under Article 3 of the Constitution, a goal that has so far eluded both the Nagas and the Mizo brethren.
The search for a homeland among the Zo (Chin–Kuki–Mizo) ethnic group has remained elusive, partly due to their nomadic past. The politics of divide and rule in Manipur led to the creation of Kangpokpi district, largely to pacify the Kukis.
The brutal conflict between the Meiteis and the Zo people in May 2023, their eviction from Imphal, and the political rhetoric that followed intensified estrangement and fired the imagination of the Kuki people for a Union Territory with a legislature.
Falling prey to the lure of a Deputy CM’s chair by one of their MLAs — and the likely participation of a few more in the new state government without any clear articulation of political gains — has been widely perceived by the Zo people as a betrayal by their political class. For the Meitei community, however, the installation of a popular government has largely been viewed as a success.
The initial days of managing the evolving situation will dictate the future of the popular government. The fear of intra-tribal conflict among the Zo people is a growing concern, as it could spill into other areas and drag the entire state into renewed turmoil.
So far, Manipur’s politics has revolved around the ethnic conflict between the Meitei community and the Zo people, with the Nagas largely remaining neutral. However, tensions have been simmering in some areas between the Nagas and the Kukis.
These have so far been contained largely through appeals to Christian brotherhood, but patience is wearing thin, and this could yet become another front of conflict.
The challenges taken up by politicians who claim to be charting the future of Manipur, barely a year before the next general elections, may yet prove to be a nightmare for the state rather than a pathway to normalcy.
Only time will tell how astutely the Chief Minister and his team handle the fast-evolving situation, where fractures in society remain raw and unresolved. Before them lies treacherous terrain, and it will be nothing short of a miracle — given that a sizeable number of looted firearms remain unrecovered — to keep the state free from violence. The future of Manipur now lies squarely in their hands.
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