Few players walking into a Ballon d’Or race carry the history that Lionel Messi does. Eight wins already sit on his shelf, and after Argentina’s run to the World Cup final, Messi has put himself back in genuine contention, a storyline that has drawn plenty of attention among India’s growing football following too.
Lionel Messi (3.75)
Messi’s numbers back that belief up. Eight goals in the tournament marked his best return at a World Cup by a distance, and Argentina leaned on him at every stage of the knockout rounds, including their comeback from 2-0 down against Egypt.
His two assists in the 2-1 semi-final win over England were arguably the standout moment of his tournament, taking his career World Cup assist total to 12, the most by any player in the competition’s history.
Whether that outweighs his move to Inter Miami remains an open question, since MLS carries far less weight with voters than Europe’s top leagues. The final ended in a 1-0 defeat to Spain too, which won’t help his case. A winner will be announced on 26 October in London, the ceremony’s 70th edition and its first outside Paris.
Harry Kane (2.30)
Kane heads into that ceremony as the clear favourite, and the numbers explain why. Sixty-one goals across all competitions fired Bayern Munich to a Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal double last season, a return good enough to make him Europe’s top scorer and land him the European Golden Shoe.
He carried that scoring form to the World Cup, adding six more goals as England reached the semi-finals before losing to Messi’s Argentina. Kane’s season is hard to argue against on output alone. That’s why he’s the favourite of most football betting sites in India, not Lionel Messi, although there’s plenty of time for those narratives to shift.
Lamine Yamal (3.25)
Yamal is the man sportsbooks rate as Kane’s closest challenger, and it’s his club form rather than his World Cup that makes the case. Barcelona’s teenage forward was named La Liga Player of the Season after 16 goals and 11 assists helped the club win the title on 94 points, with Yamal also sharing the Zarra Trophy alongside Ferran Torres.
His World Cup returns were modest by comparison, but with Spain lifting the trophy, the team’s success still counts heavily in his favour. Coupled with his league exploits, and he’s got a tidy resume for the year.
Kylian Mbappe (4.50)
Mbappe finished the World Cup with the Golden Boot, becoming the first player in the tournament’s history to win it twice, and closed his campaign as the all-time leading scorer with 22 goals. Yet the Ballon d’Or has never quite arrived for him, and this year looks unlikely to change that.
However, his chances are hurt by his team’s exploits. France fell short of the final, beaten by Spain at the semi-final stage, and Real Madrid didn’t win a single trophy all season. There was some serious individual brilliance from him this year, but the voters rarely award the individual alone. With no team silverware, his case looks thin.
Rodri (5.50)
Rodri already knows what winning the Ballon d’Or looks like, having claimed it in 2024 after Spain’s European Championship win. Being named the World Cup’s Golden Ball winner this year, on top of lifting the trophy itself, gives him a strong international case once again, a rare feat achieved by very few players in the award’s history. Manchester City’s quieter season domestically is likely to work against him this time, with the club’s title challenges falling short in both the Premier League and the Champions League. However, don’t underestimate the value of a good narrative. If Rodri gets a move to Barcelona or Real Madrid, expect his stock to rise.