Experts flag concerns over China’s proposed dam at the ‘Great Bend’

Experts from diverse fields have raised serious concerns about China’s proposed “Great Bend Dam” on the Yarlung Tsangpo, known as the Brahmaputra in India. These issues were discussed during a seminar held in Guwahati on April 8.

At the daylong seminar titled "Ensuring Water Security, Ecological Integrity, and Disaster Resilience in the Sub-Himalayan Region: The Case of the Brahmaputra", organised by Northeast India’s premier think tank, Asian Confluence, participants highlighted the potentially devastating downstream impacts of the proposed series of dams aimed at producing 60,000 MW of power at Namche Barwa. The impacts would be felt across Northeast India and Bangladesh.

Initiating the discussion, author and Tibetologist Claude Arpi stated that China not only aims to become an energy giant by constructing the dam in Medog County, but also has plans to divert the water of the Yarlung Tsangpo—known as the Brahmaputra in Assam—to the Yellow River through numerous tunnels.

Arunachal Pradesh MP Tapir Gao described the proposed dam as a “water bomb” that could be weaponized against India and other lower riparian countries. He recalled the June 2000 floods caused by a sudden release of water in the Siang River, which destroyed over 10 bridges. The Arunachal East MP also supported the proposal for another dam to be constructed on the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh to mitigate the threat of sudden water release from the Great Bend Dam.

Bertil Lintner, an expert on Asian politics and history, pointed out that China’s invasion of Tibet in the late 1950s was strategically focused on the region’s major rivers, which originate on the "Roof of the World."

“China has constructed 11 mega dams only on the Mekong River, which is the lifeline of five other countries,” he said. He also stressed the importance of a water-sharing agreement between India and China, warning that the absence of such an agreement could lead to “bilateral conflicts.”

Chairman of the Brahmaputra Board, Dr Ranbir Singh, stated that the Brahmaputra Basin is currently the only water-surplus river basin in India, while other basins face shortages. He questioned whether this status might change if the Chinese dam project moves forward. Dr Singh called for a multi-pronged strategy that includes raising international awareness and strengthening cross-border collaborations to oppose the project.

In a session dedicated to sharing best practices from the Mekong region, a dialogue took place between Dr Ranbir Singh and Dr Truong Hong Tien, Deputy Director General of the Viet Nam National Mekong Committee. The conversation was moderated by former Secretary (East) at the Ministry of External Affairs, Ambassador Riva Ganguly Das.

During a technical session, IIT Guwahati’s Prof Anamika Baruah highlighted studies predicting more “dry days” in the downstream of the Tibetan Plateau, while the region itself may experience more “wet days” due to the construction of numerous dams. However, she noted the absence of collaborative research with China on this critical issue. Urging broader attention, Prof Baruah said, “Let’s shape the narrative before it is shaped for us.”

Experts from Nepal and Bhutan also participated in the seminar, along with professionals from the fields of ecology, water resource management, international relations, environmental law, engineering, policy formulation, governance, and economics. The seminar aimed to foster collaborative dialogue among government agencies, civil society organisations, environmental practitioners, and academics, focusing on the immense challenges posed by the proposed dam in Tibet, especially amid the growing threat of climate change.

Commenting on the key takeaways from the seminar, Asian Confluence Director Dr Sabyasachi Dutta said the need of the hour is to initiate more scientific studies led by India to prevent the issue from being overshadowed by simplistic media narratives. “Only such an initiative will help develop solid ground for international support against China's proposed dam at the Great Bend,” he said.

Dr Dutta also stated that the initiative aligns with Asian Confluence’s mission to facilitate meaningful dialogue and actionable solutions around rivers and water security in the region. The organisation had earlier hosted the third edition of the international NADI Dialogue in Guwahati.

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